Updated 1-23-16 – CMD, FMI and I have updated 2016 construction spending forecast in the last month and the latest is included in this table.
Original post 12-21-15
Below are early Q3-Q4 2015 forecasts for growth in 2016 nonresidential buildings construction spending markets.
Seven firms posted forecasts for spending growth. My 12-21-15 forecasts include new starts through November in my projection.
Most of the starts that will generate spending next year are already in place. For the 2016 forecast, new starts booked through December 2015 will contribute 75% to nonresidential buildings spending. We expect new starts growth in nearly every market. However, the pattern of spending will not be a constant upward slope.
Don’t expect 2016 forecast to change much with the last month of data. Commercial/Retail, Office and Manufacturing have been declining in recent months and are expected to continue to drop. Institutional work is on the increase.
As in the 2015 spending growth forecast, I’m well outside the range of predictions for several building types, particularly Educational, Healthcare, Amusement and Office. However I’m OK with my contrary positions since I had the same regarding 2015 spending and now as we near year end I may potentially have had the closest forecast for 5 or 6 of the 7 markets.
Look back at this chart a year from now to see how we did.