Home » Behind the Headlines » My Forecast Compared to AIA Midyear

My Forecast Compared to AIA Midyear

With 7 mo of data in, here’s a comparison of my forecast for Nonresidential Buildings Spending compared to the various forecasts in the AIA Midyear Consensus

Construction Spending through July for Nonresidential Bldgs is up 4.5% YTD.

YOY range from 4% to 6% so far, averaging near 6% last 3mo, expect 6%-10% for next 5mo. My forecast, total spending expected up 6% for the year.

4 of 8 firms in the AIA Midyear Consensus forecast 10%-18% for the year. Would need 17%-37% yoy for each of the remaining 5 mo to get there. With current yoy gains at 6%, it is highly unlikely that it will increase to between 17%-37% (3x to 6x the current rate) for each of the remaining 5 months.

Here’s one market that stands out.

With 7 mo of data in, Construction Spending for Manufacturing Bldgs is up 22.4% YTD.

YOY has recently been averaging near 23%, down from 25% to most recently 19%, expect next 5mo all yoy growth <15%. My forecast, total spending expected up 15% for the year.

4 of 8 firms in the AIA Midyear Consensus forecast 32%-55% growth for the year. These would need an unrealistic 50%-100% yoy (2.5x to 5x current rate) for each of the remaining 5 mo to finish the year up 32%-55%.


1 Comment

  1. franserra says:

    I see a reduction in office space construction..

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow Construction Analytics on WordPress.com

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 599 other followers

CONTACT ME by EMAIL

%d bloggers like this: