At age 30, I couldn’t run a 7 minute mile.
I was a pretty good runner in high school and college, but really didn’t come into my own until later in life. It wasn’t until I practiced proper nutrition and learned how to train that things really came together. All of my best post high school times were in my 40s. In fact, age adjusted, all the best times of my life were in my 40s. This should give you some perspective. You are not on the downhill when you hit 40. You have years of potential in front of you. I’d like to set a challenge for some of my younger friends. You can do what ever you want. Set goals. Break your own records.
41 – 1 mile 4:41.7 2nd 40-49 Boston, Northeastern Track USATF NE
43 – 3000m 9:24.2 Boston, Northeastern Track USATFNE 5:02 mile
41 – 4 mile 21:20 2nd 40-49 Arnold Mills July4 Cumberland RI 5:20 mile
41 – 8k (4.97mi) 27:40 3rd team 40-49 National XC Champ Franklin Park 5:34
43 – 8.1 mile 45:08 1st master 40-49 Harvey’s Lake PA 5:34
40 – 10mi 55:13 11th, 1st 40-49 Narragansett RI Blessing of the Fleet 5:31
42 – 13.1mi 72:53 11th 40-49 New Bedford MA Half Marathon NE Champ. 5:34
45 – 20mi mark in marathon 2:00:08 at Burlington Vermont marathon 6:00 mile
45 – 26.2mi marathon 2:41:17 2nd master Burlington Vermont marathon 6:07
I’ve been saying for a long time the data doesn’t show a construction jobs shortage.
In total, construction jobs have been increasing faster than construction volume (spending minus inflation). But, to get a better picture we need to look at jobs vs volume by sector, Residential and Nonresidential. Then we need to look at history.
Since 2009, RESIDENTIAL volume has increased 49%, jobs increased 22%. This is partly explained by absorption of excess staff retained during recession.
From 2006 to 2009 volume decreased 53% but jobs decreased only 36%, leaving a significant amount of excess jobs.
It looks like from 2009 to 2016 there has not been enough jobs growth to support the volume growth, BUT…
Residential net changes just since 2006, volume is down 29% while jobs are down 22%. We are not nearly back to pre-recession productivity.
Since 2009, NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS volume is down by 10% but jobs are up 13%. By no means, if we look at just these 7 years, does this look like a jobs shortage.
Even previous years imbalance would not account for a need to add that many jobs. From 2006 to 2009 volume increased 2% but jobs decreased 15%. In a previous report Is There a Construction Jobs Shortage? I explained why this may occur following a prior top-heavy jobs expansion during a period of high inflation.
Nonresidential net changes just since 2006, volume is down 8% but jobs are down only 3%. Again, we are not nearly back to pre-recession productivity.
For both residential and nonresidential buildings, comparing post-recession growth to pre-recession 1996-2006 $ Put-In-Place per Job, productivity is down 21%, or we currently have 100/(100-21) = 27% more jobs now than it took before to get the same amount of work done.
If the current construction expansion period is viewed as having a jobs shortage, that claim demands that we must accept, since pre-recession, productivity has declined by 21% and the reason there is now a jobs shortage is that it takes 27% more jobs to put in place construction than it did on average from 1996 to 2006.
In my opinion, that’s a harder pill to swallow than a jobs shortage.
For more related to this discussion see Is There a Construction Jobs Shortage?
Don’t like the year-over-year (yoy) Construction Spending percent change? Just wait until next month. It’s going to be worse!
The latest year over year construction spending through February is up 3.0% compared to Feb 2016.
March data yoy comparison is going to come in at or under 2%. But construction spending is increasing!
It just so happens March 2016 was an outstanding month. That lowers the yoy percent change, but March 2016 is the anomaly.
Yoy doesn’t indicate if this year is doing poorly or if that month last year was a great month.
Yoy doesn’t indicate what direction current spending is taking.
Yoy compares an unadjusted 2017 value to an upwardly adjusted 2016 value.
For the last 40 consecutive months the construction spending value has been revise UP. But not until after major news media gets to report that yoy construction spending did not meet expectations.
For the last 18 months the average adjustment to construction spending after the 1st release of data +2%.
The yoy and mo/mo percentage change in the 1st release was understated every time.
For Q1 2017, yoy values are expected to range between 1.5% and 3.5%. 2017 is expected to finish the year up 6% over 2016.