Construction Cost Inflation – 2026
In every estimate it is always important to carry the proper value for cost inflation. Whether adjusting the cost of a recently built project to predict what it might cost to build a similar project in the near future or adding an escalation factor to the summary of an estimate for a project with a midpoint 2 years out in the future, or answering a client question, “What will it cost if I delay my project start by one year?”, whether you carry the proper value for escalation can make or break your estimate.
To properly adjust the cost of construction over time you must use an Actual Final Cost Inflation Index, otherwise called a selling price index. General construction cost indices and Input price indices that don’t track whole building final cost do not capture the full cost of escalation in construction projects.
Now using base 2024 = 100 in all data / plots included here. Percents yr/yr or mo/mo don’t change, the indexes change.
Spending Must Be Adjusted by Inflation
Usually, construction budgets are prepared from known “current” costs. If a budget is being developed for a project whose midpoint of construction costs is two years in the future, you must carry in your budget an appropriate inflation factor to represent the expected cost of the building at that time. Why the midpoint? Because half the project cost occurs prior to that point and half occurs later than that. Actually, the midpoint of spending is 50-60% into the schedule, but the calculation to the midpoint of schedule is close. So, the average inflation for the project includes early contracts that have less inflation than average and also later contracts that would have more than the average inflation. Construction inflation should always be calculated from current cost to midpoint of construction, or in the case of using historical data and converting an older actual cost to a future budget, from midpoint to midpoint.
Any time a construction project is delayed or put on hold to start at some future date, construction cost inflation must be calculated and added to the previous budget to account for the unanticipated cost increase due to the delay. Of utmost importance is using appropriate cost indices and forecasting future cost growth to account for the difference in original budget and revised budget.
Besides the estimator’s need to accurately reflect future expected cost, inflation is an important aspect of the company business plan. Typically discussed in tandem with spending, inflation has an impact on tracking and forecasting company growth. All spending includes inflation, but inflation adds nothing except $ signs to the overall growth. For example, in a year when company revenues (spending) increase by 10%, if inflation is 6%, then total business growth is only 4%. To accurately calculate growth, and the need for labor to support that growth, spending must be adjusted by the amount of inflation.
Inflation increases revenues but adds nothing to business volume. If your construction business revenue increased less than 4.6% in 2025, your total revenues did not even keep up with inflation. Your real business growth fell in 2025.
If you track company revenues as business growth, without adjusting your business plan for inflation, you’re tracking register receipts, not business volume. Here’s a simple example to understand the difference in revenues (spending) vs volume. If a basket of apples 2yrs ago cost $25, but today the same basket cost $35, receipts increased 40%, but business volume has not changed.
Actual inflation values calculated here are a composite of eight different sources, so the inflation carried in these reports will never be the highest or lowest. Predicted inflation reverts to historical averages with some influence of current conditions. Taking 4% out of all the spending numbers gives the Constant$ results or actual volume of business conducted. For 2025 business volume declined 4.6%. For 2026 it’s expected to decline about 1.7%.
Inflation in construction acts differently than consumer inflation. When there is more work available, inflation increases. When work is scarce, inflation declines. A very large part of the inflation is margins, wholesale, retail and contractor. When nonresidential construction was booming from 2004 through 2008, nonresidential final price inflation averaged almost 8%/year. This was at a time when input costs were averaging between 5% and 6%/year. When residential construction boomed from 2003 to 2005, inflation in that sector was 10%/year. But from 2009 through 2012 we experienced deflation, the worst year being 2009. Residential construction experienced a total of 17% deflation from 2007 through 2011. From 2008 to 2010, nonresidential buildings experienced 10% deflation in two years.
When there is a shortage of labor, contractors may pay a premium to keep their workers. All of that premium may not be picked up in wage reports. Construction unemployment is near an all-time low, so labor is tight. The months of May through September have now ALL posted unemployment under 4% for the last 4 years, something never before seen in the published data. Also, some of the labor inflation is due to lost productivity due to less skilled workforce.
Companies usually don’t cut # of jobs indicated by falling business volume. Often, more jobs remain than volume of work available. Productivity ($ pip per job) declines. In 2026 real construction volume after inflation is expected down -1.7%. If we keep all current jobs, then volume put-in-place per job is lower, a decline in productivity of 1.7%. If we want to maintain the current level of productivity, we would need to lose 1.7% (140k) jobs. Unless the volume of work increases, I’d expect productivity to fall in 2026.
Volume of work is spending minus inflation. When jobs growth exceeds volume growth, productivity is declining. Volume declined in 2025 and is expected to continue declining in 2026. The resulting loss of productivity is labor inflation.
Since 2011, Nonresidential Bldgs inflation averages 4.7%, Residential is 5.2% and Non-bldg is 3.8%. But those averages include the unusually high inflation years of 2021 and 2022. Without those two years, since 2011, average inflation for Nonres Bldgs is 3.9%, Residential is 3.9% and Non-bldg is 2.5%.
April 2026 Inflation YTD, Nonresidential Bldgs +4.4%, Residential +4.3% and Non-bldg +3.9%.
Types of Construction Inflation Indices
General construction cost indices and Input price indices that don’t track whole building final cost do not capture the full cost of inflation on construction projects.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), tracks changes in the prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services, including food, transportation, medical care, apparel, recreation, housing. The CPI index in not at all related to construction and should not be used to adjust construction pricing.
Producer Price Index (PPI) for Construction Inputs is an example of a commonly referenced construction cost index that does not represent whole building costs. The PPI tracks domestic material cost inputs only at the producer level, not prices or bids at the as-built level.
Engineering News Record Building Cost Index (ENRBCI) and RSMeans Cost Index are examples of commonly used indices that DO NOT represent whole building costs yet are widely referenced by construction firms and estimators everywhere to adjust project costs. Neither includes contractor margins.
It should be noted, there are far fewer available resources for residential inflation than for nonresidential inflation.
One of the best predictors of construction inflation is the level of activity in an area. When the activity level is low, contractors are all competing for a smaller amount of work and therefore they may reduce bids. When activity is high, there is a greater opportunity to bid on more work and bids can be higher. The level of activity has a direct impact on inflation.
To properly adjust the total cost of construction over time you must use actual final cost indices, otherwise known as selling price indices.
Selling Price is whole building actual final cost. Selling price indices track the final cost of construction, which includes, in addition to costs of labor and materials and sales/use taxes, general contractor and sub-contractor margins or overhead and profit.
Construction Analytics Building Cost Index, Turner Building Cost Index, Rider Levett Bucknall Cost Index and Mortenson Cost Index are all examples of whole building cost indices that measure final selling price (for nonresidential buildings only).
Residential inflation indices are primarily single-family homes but would also be relevant for low-rise two to three story building types. Hi-rise residential work is more closely related to nonresidential building cost indices.
Producer Price Index (PPI) Final Demand Indices are an example of construction cost indices that represent whole building costs. Final Demand PPI, or Selling Price, represents contractors bid price to client. Includes labor, material, equipment, overhead and profit. Labor includes change in wages and productivity.
PPI Final Demand Indices should not be referenced monthly. These are quarterly indices. Every three months (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct) BLS performs an update survey to correct the PPI Final Demand indices. For more than two years, in most quarters, about 80% to 90% of the change in the index for the quarter was posted in the update month. In some quarters, growth is flipped from negative to positive. And still in other quarters the correction month doubles or halves the rate of growth. There is no way to determine how much occurred in the update month or a previous month, but the update # along with the two previous months will get too the correct end-of-qtr index.
January is an update month. PPI Final Demand for Jan index basically includes the correction for Nov and Dec. Therefore, the index should NOT be compared mo/mo. There is only one of three months that the index is known for certain to be accurate, the update month. Compare qtr/qtr, but make sure to use the defined months, the correct update month with two previous months. For ex., (Jan+Dec+Nov) / (Oct+Sep+Aug). Those are the defined quarters. (I don’t make the rules).
Refer to National Inflation Indices for comparison to several national selling price indices or various Input indices. National reference indices are useful for comparison. Few firms project index values out past the current year, therefore all future projections in these tables are by Construction Analytics.
Construction Inflation History
Post Great Recession, 2011-2020, average inflation rates:
30-year average inflation rate for residential and nonresidential buildings is 4.1%. But when excluding deflation in recession years 2008-2010, for nonresidential buildings the long-term average is 4.7% and for residential is 4.9%.
For Non-bldg Infrastructure the 30-year average is 3.6%. When excluding deflation in the recession years 2008-2010, Non-bldg long-term average inflation is 3.9%.
All of these long term averages went up in recent years because instead of including 1991-1994, at 2%/yr, we are now including 2021-2024, at 7%/yr to 8%/yr. All long term and short term inflation rates went up.
Since 2011, Nonresidential Bldgs inflation averages 4.7%, Residential is 5.2% and Non-bldg is 3.8%. But those averages include the unusually high inflation years of 2021 and 2022. Without those two years, since 2011, average inflation for Nonres Bldgs is 3.9%, Residential is 3.9% and Non-bldg is 2.5%.
- Long-term construction cost inflation is normally about double consumer price index (CPI).
- In times of high construction spending growth, nonresidential construction annual inflation averages about 8%. Residential has gone as high as 10%.
- Nonresidential buildings inflation (prior to 2021-2022) averaged 3.7% since the recession bottom in 2011. Six-year 2014-2019 average is 4.4%.
- Residential buildings inflation (prior to 2021-2022) reached a post-recession high of 8.0% in 2013 but dropped to 3.5% in 2015. It has averaged 5.3% for 8 years 2013-2020.
- Although inflation is affected by labor and material costs, a large part of the change in inflation is due to change in contractors’ and suppliers’ margins.
- When construction volume increases rapidly, demand for labor and material causes margins to increase rapidly.
- Deflation is not likely. Only twice in 50 years have we experienced construction cost deflation, the recession years of 2009 and 2010. That was at a time when business volume went down 33% and jobs were down 30%.
Historically, when spending decreases or remains level for the year, inflation rarely (only 10% of the time) climbs above 3%. Avg inflation for all down/flat years is less than 1%. That did hold true in 2020 for both Nonres Bldgs and Non-bldg Infra. It also held true in 2023 for Residential. It did not hold true in 2021 or 2022. In 2021, spending was down for nonresidential buildings and flat for non-building. Inflation for both was over 8%.
Differences in Tracking Period
Be careful when referencing YTD growth. YTD can be the growth so far this year, that is, growth compared to December of the prior year, or it can be YTD currentyr/YTD lastyr. Neither represents the growth from the avg of the previous year, which becomes the historical value. Both are useful during the year to judge trends. The average growth for the year accounts for all the peaks and valleys within each year and and is the value carried forward into the index tables and charts.
Also, use caution when referencing Dec/Dec growth. An example of the difference between Dec/Dec tracking or year over year, and annual average tracking, is Steel Mill Products which was down 28.7% Dec22/Dec21, but the annual average for 2022 is still up 9.0% from the average 2021. In fact, the three years 20-21-22 show Dec/Dec combined inflation is +71%, but the annual averages for those same three years shows total inflation growth of 87%. Annual averages should be used to report inflation.
PPI Excludes Imports and Tariffs
When assessing or tracking the pricing effect of tariffs on construction materials, keep in mind that the Producer Price Index (PPI) does not include imports (imports are not produced in the US), so therefore, does not include tariffs. See items 4 and 24 in the FAQ provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Construction PPI changes reflect pricing decisions domestic producers make on domestic products in reaction to tariffs on imported products. Tariffs have big impact on domestic prices.
BLS explanation of method and definitions
The price change we see in the PPI for construction materials reflects the domestic material prices of ALL other domestically produced materials used in the industry. While tariffs may affect only 10% of products used in the industry, the PPI shows us the domestic producers reaction applied to the other 90%.
For example: The 2018 steel tariffs of +25% applied only on imported steel, affected only 30% (the imported share) of steel used in US. However the PPI shows us that the cost of ALL DOMESTIC steel mill products (of all types) produced in the US increased avg 18% in 2018, after the steel tariffs were imposed. Prices of domestic steel receded somewhat, but the point is that tariffs caused a price increase also in domestic steel. The increase in PPI is domestic producers pricing response in reaction to tariffs. Tariffs impacted pricing decisions on all domestically produced products, not just the imported products. Consumers pay the price.
PPI Construction Materials Inputs Indices
PPI Inputs to Nonres construction from Dec to Apr increased +5.5%. The Avg YTD’26 vs the Avg2025 = +3.6%
PPI Inputs to Rsdn construction from Dec to Apr increased +4.4%. The Avg YTD’26 vs the Avg2025 = +6.0%
Apr’26 vs Dec’25: Steel Mill +10%, Lumber+7%, Copper +8%, Aluminum +14%, Diesel +83%
In the following table of PPI Inputs, the column highlighted in RED shows the Avg YTD in 2026 compared to the Avg index for 2025. At year end, the average for 2026 gets compared to the average from 2025 to show the annual growth, which becomes the historical value. It is currently showing the average cost growth year-to-date. Notice, only a few items in the table are less than 5%. Seven items range between 5%-7% and six items are over 10%, with three of those over 20%. While the last column on the right shows the change in cost since December, the red column is the growth in cost compared to average 2025 for only the 1st 4 months of 2026. We are well on track to post the highest rate of materials cost inflation since 2022.
In the quarterly percent change table you can see the drop in Q3’22 and more in Q4’22, a sharp change in the rate of inflation. This shows up as expected in lower average of Inputs to Res and NonRes for 2023.
A General construction cost index or Input price index doesn’t track whole building final cost and does not capture the full cost of inflation in construction. Final cost indices represent total actual cost to the owner and are often higher than General indices. Producer Price Index (PPI) INPUTS to construction reflect costs at various stages of material production, generally do not represent final cost of materials to the jobsite and do not include labor, productivity or margins. PPI Final Demand indices include all costs and do represent actual final cost to the Owner.
PPI Construction Final Demand Indices
PPI Final Demand indices should not be referenced monthly. These are quarterly indices. PPI Final Demand Indices are for Nonresidential Bldgs only. Every three months (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct) BLS performs an update survey to correct the PPI Final Demand indices for the current month and the previous two months. For more than two years, in most quarters, about 80% to 90% of the change in the index for the quarter was posted in the update month. In some quarters, growth is flipped from negative to positive in the update month. And still in other quarters the correction month doubles or halves the rate of growth. January data (released in Feb) is an update month. The PPI Final Demand for Jan. is basically the correction for Nov.+Dec.+Jan. The index should NOT be compared mo/mo. Compare qtr/qtr, but make sure to use the correct update month with two other months, (Nov+Dec+Jan)/(Aug+Sep+Oct).
Due to the nature of the PPI Final Demand Index, (2 monthly readings from model then every 3rd month correction by contractor survey), the correction month for 5 of the last 8 quarters flipped the sign of the modeled months. In 2 of the remain 3 months the correction months more than doubled the rate of change for the previous 2 months. There is no other proof needed to convince you to take care when using this index. Get it right.
Jan is the correction month for Q4, so the Jan 2025 value closes out the 4th qtr 2024. Most bldg types and contractors are up in the 2nd half 2024 from the 1st half, but cost growth has been nearly flat. If extended, the trend leading into 2025 is for slow inflation growth. However the Roofing trades are increasing at a slightly faster rate than all others.
Due to the nature of the PPI Final Demand Index, (2 monthly readings from model then every 3rd month correction by contractor survey), it is not uncommon that the contractor survey correction month flips the sign of the modeled months for the quarter.
In 2023, for each quarter, we see two months posted positive, then a large negative value for the correction month. The negative correction is large enough in all cases to turn the entire quarter negative. Here’s an example: for the period May-Jun-Jul, Jul is the correction month. PPI values were +0.09%, +0.02%, -1.23%. The average for each of the 3mo is -0.37%, (the sum of the 3 months divided equally. The May and Jun values that were originally posted based on modeling flipped from + to – after the contractor survey value is applied to the QTR. That highlights why PPI Final Demand indices should not be referenced monthly.
Construction Analytics Building Cost Indices and Reference Indices
Since 2011, Nonresidential Bldgs inflation averages 4.7%, Residential is 5.2% and Non-bldg is 3.8%. But those averages include the unusually high inflation years of 2021 and 2022. Without those two years, since 2011, average inflation for Nonres Bldgs is 3.9%, Residential is 3.9% and Non-bldg is 2.5%.
Actual inflation values calculated here are a composite of eight different sources, so the inflation carried in these reports will never be the highest or lowest.
Turner Nonres Bldgs Index is up 1.3% in the 1st qtr 2026 from Q4’25 and is already up 3.1% from the avg 2025.
Rider Levitt Bucknall Nonres Bldg Index is up 1.0% in the 1st qtr 2026 from Q4’25 and is up 2.7% from the avg 2025.
Both of these indices have been increasing at a rate of 1.0% to 1.3% for the last 4 quarters and recent PPI data seems to indicate there is potential for that rate of increase to accelerate.
Construction Analytics April 2026 Inflation YTD, Nonresidential Bldgs +4.4%, Residential +4.3% and Non-bldg +3.9%.
Other indices to watch Mortenson Nonres Bldgs Index and Census New Single Family Home Index
The following Construction Inflation plot (for Nonresidential Buildings only) shows three elements: 1) a solid grey bar reflecting the max and min of the 8 indices I track in my weighted average inflation index, 2) a solid black line indicating the weighted average of those 8 indices, and 3) a dotted red line showing the Engineering News Record Building Cost Index (ENR BCI). Notice the ENR BCI is almost always the lowest, or one of the lowest, indices. ENR BCI, along with R S Means Index and the PPI Inputs, unlike final cost indices, do not include margins or productivity changes and in the case of ENR BCI has very limited materials and labor inputs.
Most of the tables and plots here are cumulative indexes. Construction Inflation annual percents for the three major sectors, Residential, Nonresidential Bldgs and Non-building Infrastructure, are recorded in this short table, Escalation form Prev Year. Useful to compare to last year, but you would need to mathematically do the compounding to move over several years.
Final cost indices represent total actual cost to the owner and are generally higher than general indices. Producer Price Index (PPI) INPUTS to construction reflect costs at various stages of material production, generally do not represent final cost of materials to the jobsite and do not include labor, productivity or margins. Even with that, a PPI Inputs index +20% for a material could be only a +5% final cost. PPI Final Demand indices include all costs and do represent actual final cost. The solid black line (above) represents the Construction Analytics Building Cost Index for Nonresidential Bldgs and is a final cost index.
All these tables are set to base year 2024=100.
All of the Index Tables and the plot below, Construction Analytics Building Cost Index, show the cumulative inflation index, or the cumulative compounded effect of inflation for any two points in time.
How to use an index: Indexes are used to adjust costs over time for the effects of inflation. An index already compounds annual percent to prevent the error of adding annual percents. To move cost from some point in time to some other point in time, divide Index for year you want to move to by Index for year you want to move cost from, TO/FROM. Costs should be moved from/to midpoint of construction, the centroid of project cost. Indices posted here are at middle of year and can be interpolated between to get any other point in time.
The three yellow highlighted lines in the index tables are plotted here. The three major sectors, Residential, Nonresidential Buildings and Non-building Infrastructure,
This table and plot is an extension of the tables and plots above. Data is as of Q1 2026, but the table covers from 1967 to 2000. Data is pretty sparse.
Non-building Infrastructure Indices
Non-building infrastructure indices are so unique to the type of work that individual specific infrastructure indices must be used to adjust cost of work.
The FHWA highway index increased 17% from 2010 to 2014, stayed flat from 2015-2017, then increased 6%+ in 2018. The Highway index for 2019 is up about 6%. The Highway index increased 66% from 2020 to 2025.
The IHS Pipeline and LNG indices increased in 2018 but are still down 20% since 2014. The Pipeline/LNG index increased 36% from 2020 to 2025.
In the Index tables above, dividing the current year by the previous year will give the current year’s inflation rate. All indices are the average rate for the year.
Also, in the tables above, all reference indices data is gathered from the original source, then all are normalized to a common base, 2024 = 100. This allows us to see how different indices compare.
Comparison of Indices
This plot compares four final cost indices and three inputs cost indices. Prior to 2020 there is a lot of symmetry in the final cost group. Everything changed after that.
Previous year Construction Inflation 2025 Update Nov – Base 2024 = 100
Prior year Construction Inflation 2024 – last updated JUL 2024 – BASE 2019=100
SEE ALSO Tariffs Create Unknown Costs to Construction
Links to Data Sources Construction Inflation >>> Links
Outlook 2026 Construction Briefs May 2026
Links to Explanations of PPI Index PPI Explanation provided by AGC
A word about terminology: Inflation vs Escalation. These two words, Inflation and Escalation, both refer to the change in cost over time. However escalation is the term most often used in a construction cost estimate to represent anticipated future change, while more often the record of past cost changes is referred to as inflation. Keep it simple in discussions. No need to argue over the terminology, although this graphic might represent how most owners and estimators reference these two terms.
Construction Briefs May 2026
Construction Spending is now in for Jan, Feb and Mar. Spending is up 0.3% year-to-date (YTD) from 2025, but still 0.1% below the annual average 2025. The revised forecast for 2026 total construction spending is $2.225 trillion, expected to finish up 2.5% from 2025.
Forecast spending has increased slightly, almost entirely due to a March increase 3% above forecast for Single Family Residential. Residential renovations also added a sizable increase in March. Overall residential spending YTD thru March is 0.8% above Jan-Mar 2025, but it is still 1.6% below the annual average in 2025. The 2nd half of 2025 was much stronger than the 1st half, raising the 2025 average. Residential spending in 2026 is stronger midyear and is forecast to finish up 2.1% from 2025. However, after inflation, that is still a decline of 2%.
Nonresidential Bldgs spending is down 3.1% YTD from 2025 and down 3.4% from the annual average 2025. But spending improves throughout 2026 and is expected to wipe away any deficit and finish 2026 just equal to 2025. Keep in mind, with 4% inflation, that means real nonres bldgs construction volume declines in 2026, for the 2nd consecutive year. In fact, real nonres bldgs volume is currently down 10% from 2024.
Non-building Infrastructure spending is currently up 5% YTD and is forecast to finish 2026 up 7% from 2025. Strong gains in Power and Highway carry infrastructure to a positive forecast.
Notice in the table below, I carry inflation at about 4% in 2026. Actual inflation values are all final cost and are a composite of eight different sources, so the inflation carried in these reports will never be the highest or lowest. Predicted inflation reverts to historical averages with some influence of current conditions.
Taking 4% out of all the spending numbers above gives the Constant$ results or actual volume of business conducted. For 2025 business volume declined 4.6%. For 2026 it’s expected to decline about 1.7%. Only Non-bldg Infrastructure has posted real volume of business gains in 2025 and 2026. Spending is up, but volume of business is down.
Constant $ for all tables and plots in this report is inflation adjusted to mid 2024.
The rate of growth in construction spending for Data Centers averaged 3%+/mo for 36 months. Then for the last 6mo of 2025 it dropped back to <2%/mo. For 1st 3mo of 2026 it’s avg 2.8%/mo. Forecast avg for 2026 is 2.9%/mo.
As of March, DC spending is up 9% since Dec, up 22% from the Avg 2025.
Construction Spending for Jan, Feb and Mar is up 0.3% year-to-date (YTD) from 2025. After adjusting for inflation Constant$ volume is down 1% for the 1st 3 months 2026 vs 2025. Jobs thru April are up 1.5% YTD from 2025.
Although there may be a couple months in 2026 when construction jobs do increase, we should not expect overall construction jobs growth in 2026. We are in the 2nd yr of a constant$ volume decline. If jobs do increase, (jobs up-volume down) we are experiencing a productivity decline.
This plot shows the last time jobs and volume were in sync was Q2-2024.
Construction Analytics Outlook 2026
First pass at forecast 2026, includes first Census report of final 2025 spending. 2025 will be revised several times in the coming months, Dec and Nov are still subject to revision. All of this is behind what would be normal schedule due to shutdowns. Then all of 2025 will be revised, often a more significant revision, with the release of May data on July 1. However, this represents my initial Outlook for 2026 spending. More to soon follow on jobs and inflation.
SPENDING
Tracking spending throughout the year:
There are several months during the year when spending is remarkably consistent. For instance, over a period of 25 years, June and July have averaged 9.1% and 9.2% of actual annual spending, with a high/low range variation of less than +/- 0.25%. August and September have the highest rates of annual spending, but with slightly higher rates of variation. January and February have the lowest share of annual spending with the highest rates of variation. May, June, July and August have the lowest rates of variation from average across 25 years. Using subsets of months with the lowest variation in annual spending is a way to check forecasts during the year.
If we add up the total NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Construction $ spent in AMJJAS (Apr thru Sep) and divide by the statistical average spending for those 6 months, 23 out of 25 times the result is within less than +/-0.75% of the final total annual spending. So once we have September data we have a subset that usually predicts the final spending outcome for the year within less than 1%. If we add up the total (NSA) Construction $ spent in MJJA (May thru Aug) and divide by the statistical average spending in those 4 months, 24 out of 25 times the result will be within less than +/-1.25% of total annual spending. Both of these subsets of data, for the last three years, predicted final annual spending within less than +/-0.5%.
My forecasts as of July and again as of August data in 2025 were both within less than 1% of the reported final annual spending through December data. My forecasts for Nonresidential Buildings, since June data, have been within +/-0.5% of final 2025 spending.
INFLATION
Notice in the table below, I carry inflation at about 4% in 2025 and similar in 2026. Actual inflation values are a composite of eight different sources, so the inflation carried in these reports will never be the highest or lowest. Predicted inflation reverts to historical averages with some influence of current conditions. Taking 4% out of all the spending numbers above gives the Constant$ results or actual volume of business conducted. For 2025 business volume declined 5.1%. For 2026 it’s expected to decline about 2.3%.
An increase in gasoline/diesel prices results in an increase on every single material item used in construction. If it’s not delivery charges, it’s heavy onsite machinery operation to install. Fuel surcharges are not uncommon in construction contracts. It could also be in fuel needed to manufacture products. The current world situation may/will have adverse effects on future construction inflation.
Constant $ adjusts all spending for inflation to represent dollars spent at the same point in time. Throughout these analyses, Constant $ are adjusted to midyear 2024. Constant $ is a measure of the change in business volume.
Inflation increases revenues but adds nothing to business volume. If your construction business revenue increased less than 5.1% in 2025, your total revenues did not even keep up with inflation. Your real business growth fell in 2025.
PPI
Data through February for individual Producer Price Index items. PPI items do not reflect imports, so tariffs would not be reflected in these numbers. Also current world oil situation would not yet be captured in values through February. I would expect to see numerous line items and total inputs increase in future months.
Cost of Inputs YTD thru Feb is showing the fastest rate of inflation recorded since 2022.
Construction PPI
largest gain in last month Deisel +20%, but still down -11% from average 2025
largest gains over last 6mo Aluminum +43%, Copper +21%, Steel +9%, Paving +9%
Almost all 2025 final cost inflation was added in Q4 2025, and in every case YTD’26 inflation has increased since Q4.
JOBS
Construction jobs from Dec24 to Dec25 fell by 4,000. But the better comparison, Avg’25 vs the Avg’24, increased by 58,000. However, spending was indicating a decline in jobs. Current $ spending in 2025 declined -1.4% or $30bil. After inflation, or Constant$ spending, declined -5.2%. That would indicate a decline of 400,000 jobs, but jobs seldom fall at the same rate as spending.
The inverse of $ put-in-place per job (the plot above) is # of jobs to put-in-place a given amount. The plot below does that for $1 billion worth of construction volume. For every billion$ of volume Nonres Bldgs, it takes about 5,000 jobs one year to put-in-place. For residential it’s only about 3,700 jobs. Both vary from year to year. For Nonbldg infrastructure jobs it takes only about 2,500 jobs to put-in-place $1billion in one year.
Although Current$ spending in 2026 is expected to increase slightly, Constant$ spending after inflation is projected to fall about 2.5%, indicating a decline of 200,000 jobs. Once again, don’t expect jobs to fall at the same rate as spending, so don’t expect a decline of 200,000 jobs, but I don’t expect even slow jobs growth like we see in 2025.
When Constant$ spending (volume) declines more than jobs, that indicates a decline in productivity. It’s safe to say that construction productivity is at its lowest point in over 30 years, and by the looks of the following plot, probably the lowest ever.
Construction Volume (spending minus inflation) has been decreasing since May 2024. Every increase in jobs since then results in a reduction in productivity. With current volume, construction could stand to lose 100k jobs to get back to May’24 productivity. That is NOT expected in the next 3yrs.
YTD through Feb. 2026, construction jobs are up 46,000 over Jan-Feb 2025. That’s kind of a hard to believe number, since construction Constant$ spending, or real construction volume, is forecast down 1.5% or $2.5bil (NSA not seasonally adjusted) over the same two month period. That would have us suspect a loss of 10,000 jobs. Even more astonishing is that workforce hours worked over the same 2 month period ’26 vs ’25 increased 2.5% or the equivalent of +200,000 jobs.
In 2022, 2023 and 2024, jobs increased in 35 out of 36 months. Construction volume fell in 14 out of those 36 months, but average volume increased all three years. We added 680,000. Total 3yr annual average volume increased 8%. In 2025 plus Jan-Feb 2026, construction jobs declined in 9 out of 14 months. Volume has fallen in 10 out those 14 months.
Jobs are down 0.6% since Dec 2024. Volume fell 5.1% in 2025 and is forecast to fall 2.3% in 2026. Currently there is no growth in volume to support jobs growth.
January 2026 posted the largest construction jobs increase (+48,000) in 4 years. There has been no consistent increase in volume to support jobs growth since the 1st half of 2024.
Unemployment and productivity includes only jobs counted in the official U.S. Census Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report. There is a large, unaccounted for shadow workforce in construction. By some accounts, 40% or more of the construction workforce in California and Texas are immigrant workers. Immigrants may comprise between 14% and 22% of the total construction workforce. It is not clear how many within that total may or may not be included in the U.S. Census BLS jobs report. However, the totals are significant enough that they would alter some of the results commonly reported.
MARKETS
Manufacturing starts peaked in early 2023, now down 25%. Starts will fall another 10% in 2026. The spending decline in Manufacturing is expected and was predicted in 2024. With peak new starts in 2023, and peak spending from those starts expected at the midpoint of project activity, a year to perhaps 18 months later, it is not unexpected to see the falloff from peak spending. Spending was forecast to fall in 11 of 12 months in 2025. It fell in 9 months for a net decline of -6.5% for the year. It has increased only once since March 2025. Spending started the year 2026 already down -8% from the avg 2025. Spending is forecast to fall in 11 months in 2026 for a net decline of -12%. Spending continues to decline into 2027.
Data Center new starts have been increasing $10bil/year for the last three years contributing to rapid spending growth. Starts are expected to increase the next few years. But recent events may lead to cancelation or delay of some future projects. 25 data center projects were canceled in 2025 amidst surging local opposition — 4X as many as in 2024. Spending started 2026 already up 12% from the avg 2025. Growth is expected to hold around 20% to 25%/year the next two years.
Then we have articles like this: “The largest data center in the world is scheduled to be built in Ohio, total cost $40 billion.” Now, all of that cost must not be construction of the data center. Some must be computer equipment. But, just to put that in perspective, if $25 billion of that is building construction cost, it would take a daily average of 15000 workers 8 years to build a $25bil building cost data center complex. That’s 6% of the entire construction workforce in Ohio. And that is daily average for 8 years. Buildings start out slow and come to a peak of construction activity. That means the project could starts off with 1,000 workers onsite and could peak at 30,000. And it will require 1/3 of Ohio’s entire statewide power grid capacity. That one project represents about 5% of the entire national construction forecast for data centers over the next 8 years. When we look at how much labor it takes and how much is available, and how long it takes to build a building, this seems highly unlikely. This will most probably be phased construction over a long period.
Of course, the overall project schedule could be shortened by working 24/7, but not nearly by as much as you would think. Construction Overtime – A Common Miscalculation and Overtime Isn’t Always What It Seems – Lost Productivity Construction
( Personal opinion – Data Center growth will be restricted by difficulty to ramp up power generation and transmission. This in turn will slow construction spending growth in the data center market).
Without Data Centers, Office spending is doing poorly. Spending in Current$ peaked in early 2020 then again in early 2023. Spending is now down 30% from the 2023 peak and is predicted to decline 7% in 2026, then remain flat in 2027. Spending started 2026 already down 5% from the avg 2025.
Census reports construction spending for Offices SAAR at $109bil., but that includes Data Centers. Data Centers currently are 43% of the Office category. While Office is declining, DC are increasing since 2023 by $10bil/yr.
Data Centers construction spending is at an all-time high SAAR $46bil, climbing at a rate of 1 1/2% to 2%/mo.
Offices w/o DC are now at an SAAR of $62bil, down 30% from the 2020 peak, falling at 5%-10%/yr.
In constant$ (inflation adjusted) office w/o DC are down 50% from 2020 peak.
Warehouse starts peaked in 2022 and since have fallen 25%. Spending is down 35% from 2023 peak and may remain near this level through 2027.
Healthcare spending is a bright light among the nonresidential markets. My forecast predicts a 7% increase in 2026 and a 12% increase in 2027.
Educational spending advances in both 2026 and 2027, but not quite at the same rate as Healthcare, and certainly not near the rate of Data Centers. Spending started 2026 already up nearly 5% from the avg 2025. The trend in spending has been increasing since midyear 2025. Growth is expected to reach 6% in 2026 then slow to 3%-4%/year the next two years.
Power is difficult to forecast. Although I have spending increasing 8% in 2026, gains may be somewhat dependant on power supplies to new data centers. If data centers fail to advance as rapidly as expected, power spending may slow as well.
My Midyear’25 Forecast Compared to AIA Consensus
This is a simple list compiled of the percent growth forecast by each firm at Mid year 2025, then compared to the final outcome at year end. It’s a “How’d we do? comparison. The column titled Forecast’25 is the year-to-date spending through Dec. reported by Census 2-28-26, or in essence, the 1st look at final spending for 2025, the number all forecasters are trying to predict. There will still be minor revisions to this number.
To get an idea of how each firm’s forecast compares, I scored 3 points for closest forecast to actual, 2 points for 2nd closest and minus 1 point for worst forecast. Only Nonresidential Bldgs is counted here. We always see the forecasts published. We seldom, if ever, see the final outcome published.
You can search this website (search for the word Compared) for the outcome results for the last 6 years. Construction Analytics, by far, has proven to post the best forecasts. Not always, but more often than any others, particularly in the Midyear forecast where Construction Analytics, out of six years, has three of the best and two of the 2nd best forecasts.
AIA Consensus did not report Commercial/Retail w/o Warehouse, nor Office w/o Data Center. Construction Analytics did not report Comm/Rtl w/Warehouse nor Office w/Data Center, but those values were available in the file data and are shown here for comparison. The two items highlighted in blue are not used in the score.
Construction Briefs Jan 2026 Data Update 2-2-26
We are still not where we should be with actual data due to government data delays caused by the shutdown. Recent releases bring BLS jobs data up to Dec, PPI data through Nov and Construction Spending data through October. Here’s a collection of tables and plots reflecting some of that data through the end of January.
Construction Spending Value Put in Place
The November 2025 release, originally scheduled for January 2, 2026, and the December 2025 release, originally scheduled for February 2, 2026, for the Monthly Construction Spending report have been rescheduled for release on February 27, 2026.
There’s is an unusually large decline in residential construction spending in Sept data, almost entirely attributed to renovation work. A closer look at the data shows it may be that Aug and Oct reno data seem out-of-sync and those may be overstated. All 2025 data still open to Jul 1 revision.
25 data center projects were canceled in 2025 amidst surging local opposition — 4X as many as in 2024.
( Personal opinion – Data Center growth will be restricted by difficulty to ramp up power generation and transmission. This in turn will slow construction spending growth in this market).
Construction Jobs increased 1.1% in 2025. Spending (actual thru Oct) fell 1.5% in 2025. But inflation ate up 4% of spending. So real volume of construction activity fell 5.3%. Therefore, productivity fell 6.4%.
Also, if your construction business revenue increased less than 5.3% in 2025, your real business growth fell in 2025.
Jobs 2025 Nonres Bldgs +1.6%, Nonbldg +2.4%, Residential -0.6%
Construction Spending – Volume – Jobs
Construction Jobs avg 2025 increased only 88k from avg 2024. Slowest jobs growth since 2011 (ex 2020). Jobs 2025 up 1.1% over 2024. Jobs have been flat (or +/- slight) since Feb.
Residential jobs down 0.6%, but rsdn spending ytd thru Aug down 3.7% from Q4’24. After adjusting for inflation rsdn volume ytd is down 6%. Nonres Bldgs jobs up 1.6%. Nonres Bldgs volume down 3%. Nonbldg jobs up 2.4%. Nonbldg volume up 1.5%.
Environment for construction jobs looking difficult. Volume of work (spending minus inflation) available is declining all through 2026. Biggest declines by far, Manufacturing and SF Rsdn.
In the 10 months period Jan-Oct’25, construction volume declined by 4%. In the same period, construction jobs increased by 0.5%. And yet some economists are saying that job openings and hires indicate a labor shortage. Jobs should follow the amount of business volume.
Don’t expect construction to add jobs in 2026. While spending may be near flat, inflation data for 2026 has volume projected to fall 3.7%.
Construction Productivity
Construction spending constant $$ (volume) for 2025 is down 5.3% compared to start 2025 or same month 2024. I’m forecasting a decline of 3.7% in 2026. A 3.7% drop in volume could be a loss of 300,000 Jobs. Companies usually don’t cut # of jobs indicated by falling business volume. More jobs remain than volume. Productivity ($ pip per job) declines.
In 2026 real construction volume after inflation is expected down -3.7%. If we keep all current jobs, then volume put-in-place per job is lower, a decline in productivity of 3.7%. If we want to maintain the current level of productivity, we would need to lose 3.7% (300k) jobs. Unless the volume of work increases, I’d expect productivity to fall in 2026.
Volume of work is spending minus inflation. When jobs growth exceeds volume growth, productivity is declining. Volume has been declining for last 2 years and is expected to continue declining in 2026.
Inflation Index and Producer Price Index
If you track company revenues as business growth, without adjusting your business plan for inflation, you’re tracking register receipts, not business volume. Here’s a simple example to understand the difference in revenues (spending) vs volume. If a basket of apples 2yrs ago cost $25, but today the same basket cost $35, receipts increased 40%, but business volume has not changed.
Construction Briefs NOV 2025
After some delayed data released recently, we now have August Construction Spending and Sept Jobs.
In the past 12mo, Rsdn construction jobs fell 46k (-1.4%). Nonres Bldgs jobs increased 59k (+1.6%) and Nonbldg jobs increased 24k (+2.1%). Rsdn spending is down 5% (-$39bil) Nonres Bldgs is down 3.4% (-$25bil) Nonbldg is up 3.1% (+$15bil) Expect total spending in 2025 down 2.1%, jobs UP 1%
Construction Spending Forecast Total spending varies less than 1% from current through 2026 Jobs YTD up 16k. Only times job growth that slow was 2020 or recessions. 2011 through 2024, even with losses in 2020, avg jobs growth was 200k/yr. Don’t expect job openings (see JOLTS) in near future.
Environment for construction jobs looking difficult. Constant $ spending in 2026 is down just less than 1%. But Volume of work (spending minus inflation) available is down just over 4% and is declining all through 2026. Biggest declines by far, Manufacturing and SF Rsdn.
The decline in Manufacturing construction spending is due to having passed the peak in the scheduled project timelines for the large volume of mega-projects that started in 2021-22-23-24. (I wrote about it in more detail in Nov’24 in the article linked.) Peak spending is typically just past the midpoint of project construction. From Apr 2024 to Nov 2024, Mnfg spending averaged $240bil., the highest rate of spending on record. In 2025 it started the year at a rate of $$230bil but will end the year at $210bil. By the end of 2026 the rate of spending drops to $190bil.
The Manufacturing Spending Taper
My forecast has not changed much overall in the last few months. Residential has gained in revisions added to June and July and Aug posted a very strong 1.3% gain.
We will wait a little longer before we see any meaningful changes in construction materials input costs. September data (released 11-26-25) reported here. Also remember, PPI does not track imports, only domestic producers. Therefore, any implied increase in PPI being related to tariffs would be a domestic reaction to an import tariff. We can expect that.
INPUTS thru Sept up ~2% from avg2024. Final Demand for Nonres Bldgs is up 1.2% ytd vs avg 2024. However, Oct is the revision month for Q3 Final Demand data, so Final Demand data not finalized for Q3.
Construction Inflation 2025 Update Nov
Please refer to Construction Inflation & PPI 2025 updated 10-17-25 for extended discussion of inflation, how and when to apply, historical indices, PPI Data and Tables. Also see Construction Briefs Sept 2025 for August PPI data. No PPI data has been updated since Aug data issued in Sept.
We are still missing a lot of information. It was expected that much of the tariff costs would show up in Q3, or even Q4, so these costs are more likely to go up than down. But we can’t see those changes in cost. However, there are no shortage of reports of cost pressures. It’s much more than just tariffs.
Turner Nonres Bldgs Index is up 3.5% ytd for Q3, up 1.1%-1.2% each quarter.
Rider Levitt Bucknall Nonres Bldg Index for Q3 is up 3.3%, up 1.0%-1.1% each quarter.
Mortenson Nonres Bldgs Index is up 6.3% for 9 months.
Census New Single Family Home Index is up 3.9% YTD for 8 months thru Aug.
RS Means Nonres Bldgs Index is up 3.4% for 9 months, w/o margins.
The Producer Price Index for construction materials shows these items up greater than 4% ytd as of Aug: Concrete pipe, Paving Mixtures, Lumber/Plywood, all copper and aluminum wire and shapes.
30-year average inflation rate for residential and nonresidential buildings is 4.1%. But when excluding deflation in recession years 2008-2010, for nonresidential buildings the long-term average is 4.7% and for residential it’s 4.9%.
For Non-bldg Infrastructure the 30-year average is 3.6%. When excluding deflation in the recession years 2008-2010, Non-bldg long-term average inflation is 3.9%.
All of these long term averages went up in recent years because, instead of including 1991-1994 at 2%/yr, we are now including 2021-2024 at 7%-8%/yr. All long term and short term inflation rates went up.
Since 2011, Nonres Bldgs inflation is 4.8%, Residential is 5.4% and Non-bldg is 4.3%.
The forecast values carried in the following tables reflect trades and firms currently posted Q3 inflation trackers, using an assumption that rates tend to follow the current pattern and with no reasoning to assume a Q3/Q4 price decline.
Forecasting in a Shutdown
10-7-25 It sure doesn’t help forecasters when we can’t get fresh data. So how can we forecast when there is no current data forthcoming?
One of the data sets that my forecasting models are set to calculate is annual forecast on smaller sets of data within the year. For example: The Total Spending SAAR average for the months of AMJJAS (Apr thru Sept) when extended for a full 12 months, predicts the annual spending within +/- 1%. This calculation has been within this 1% limit 22 times in 24 years (think Drake Maye accuracy here). The other 2 years were off by 1.1% and 2.2% (in 2020). And unfortunately, we don’t have August or September data.
The last actual data we have is July. For Nonresidential Bldgs, the average predicted from AMJJ (Apr thru July) predicted the annual total Nonres Bldgs spending within 1.8% 13 out of the last 14 years (2011 to 2024), with one year being 2.6%. The average of those 14 years is less than 1% off from the actual.
This is not a simple average. Each month produces a different share of annual spending. For ex: Based on 20-year averages, January and February each produce only about 7% of annual Nonres Bldgs spending while June and July produce each about 9% of annual spending. When a small set of data is used, the spending in each of those months is compared to the 20-yr average for those months and projected out to get 100% or a full 12 months of spending.
The small data set of AMJJ, when used to predict 2025 Nonres Bldgs spending, forecasts +/- 0.9% or $730bil to $756bil. The average predicts spending on Nonres Bldgs will hit $743bil. My current forecast, which includes actual data thru July and forecast to year end, predicts spending will hit $749bil.
Residential spending, based on small data set is between $882bil and $920bil., with the average predicting $901bil. My current forecast with all actual data from Jan thru July and forecast thru year end is $892bil.
The best small data set predictor is having data for AMJJAS. This predicts total spending will come in between $2109bil and $2149bil, with the average for the year at $2133bil. My current forecast predicts spending for 2025 will total $2140bil.
Generally, I look at these small data set calculations to insure I haven’t made some kind of blunder in my forecast. In this case, the small data set gives some comfort level that the annual forecast, although based on only 7 months of actual data, may not be very far off from what to expect at year end.
Construction Briefs Sept 2025
The headline construction data is the year-to-date (ytd) comparison. Through July data, ytd2025 is -2.2% compared to ytd2024. But where is it headed. Watch for this. Last year spending was increasing until it peaked in October. This year spending is falling and will continue to fall into Q3. Every month now the ytd spread gets worse, because 2025 is decreasing and 2024 was increasing. It’s significant in residential which is currently thru July down YTD 4.0% and is forecast to finish 2025 down 5.2%.
Construction Spending is down 7 out of the last 9mo, now down -3.5% or an inflation adjusted total -6.5% since October. Over that period spending is down most significantly in Residential. Residential spending peaked in October 2024. Since then it’s down 10% ($90bil). Warehouse is down -12% ($8bil). Manufacturing is down only 6% but that is $15bil. Manufacturing is experiencing the tail end of a huge volume of work that peaked also in Oct., 2024. It is expected to continue on a slowly declining spending slope for at least the next year. Spending is up the most now in Data Centers, on track to gain 32% (+$10bil) in 2025 and 31% ($13bil) in 2026.
When spending is up by just a little it looks like we are making progress. But we are always fighting inflation. If spending is up by 3% but inflation is 4%, then real business volume declined by 1%. If spending is down 5%, with 3% to 4% inflation, business volume is down 8% to 9%.
Overall, business is declining. The current data in the table below indicates constant$ spending, or business volume, drops for the next three years.
Do not overlook the impact of inflation. Residential spending for 2025 may end down only 5.2% but spending includes inflation of 4.7%. When real residential volume is compared to real volume in 2024 we find that residential volume of business declined 9.1% in 2025. This happened also in 2023, then not since 2009, when it fell 24%. Let that sink in! Residential business volume in 2025 is forecast down almost 10% ($85bil). Since the most recent peak spending in 2022, residential volume is down almost 15%, (~$150bil).
Since 2011, (excluding recession yrs) construction jobs thru Aug increased on average by 150,000 over the 8mo. For 2025, jobs thru Jul increased only 6,000, the slowest jobs growth (ex recessions) in 50 years. Residential construction jobs peaked in Sep’24. Spending was near the May peak from August to December. Since then, spending has been falling and will continue to fall. Rsdn jobs have fallen 7 out of the last 10 months. Rsdn jobs are down 1% ytd. Nonresidential and Nonbuilding jobs are both increasing slightly. The outlook for 2025 has construction jobs falling by 40,000. Jobs are expected to fall even more in 2026.
While many of the construction cost items in the PPI are tame so far, there are a few that have outsized gains. PPI YTD thru Aug vs the 2024 avg Conc Pipe +6.2%, Lumber/Plywd +4.4%, Fab Str Steel +3.5%, Nonferrous wire +7.2%, Alum Shapes +12%, Diesel -10.3%.
Final Demand pricing for Nonres Bldgs holding down at 2% or lower. Construction Analytics inflation rate for 2025, which includes inputs from eight sources, is 4.4%.
Remember, the PPI does not track imports or tariffs.
Construction Briefs Aug 2025
The biggest story in construction data right now is jobs.
Average construction jobs growth through July, last 25 years, excluding recessions, +130,000.
Average construction jobs growth through July, last 10 years, excluding recessions, +140,000.
2025 Construction Jobs growth through July, +21,000.
Not so surprising, as the Constant $ construction spending through July is down -5.7%, (compared to same months previous year), steepest decline since 2011, which was the end of the great recession. Constant $ (inflation adjusted) construction spending is now back to early 2022 level.
Construction Spending is down 5 of the last 6mo, now down a total -3.0% from Dec. Over that period spending is down most significantly in Residential, Manufacturing and Commercial w/o Warehouse. It’s up the most in Data Centers, Highway and Public Utilities. Overall, business is declining.
Construction Spending inflation adjusted is forecast to drop slightly every month for the rest of the year. Expect constant $ spending at year end down -6.3% from 2024. Uncertainty over tariffs and funding subsidies has slowed decision making on planning and moving new projects forward to construction. This is not an environment to expect jobs growth.
If jobs were to move at the same rate as business volume, with 2025 construction spending in constant$ expected to fall -6.3%, then jobs would be expected to fall -6.3%. That’s 500,000 jobs. The only times we’ve ever lost 500,000 jobs in a year was in both 2009 and 2010. In those years, after falling 17% in the previous 3 years, business volume dropped another 12% and 10% respectively.
Residential construction jobs peaked last September and are now down 1% or 35,000 jobs since then. In Constant $, residential spending is down 10% since last September. Jobs never move at the same rate as spending. This has a significant impact on productivity.
Data Centers are the bright spot in construction spending, up 17% since December and forecast to finish the year up 30%, an increase of +$10bil.
Biggest forecast declines in Current$ construction spending: Residential -5.8% (by far largest $ decline, -$55bil); Manufacturing – 6.5%, -$15bil; Warehouse -10%, -$7bil; Office (ex Data Centers) -10%, -$7bil; Comm Retail (ex Warehouse) -8%, -$6bil.
Manufacturing spending is now receding from an astronomical high. From 2019 through 2021 spending was averaging $80bil/yr. In 2024 it reached an average of $235bil, and peaked in Oct at $244bil. In June it was only $223bil and it’s expected forecast for 2025 is down -6.5% from 2024, but that is still a very high $220bil.
Construction Analytics 