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Construction Briefs Nov’22

Construction is Booming. Well, OK, construction is setting up to be booming in 2023-2024. New construction starts for Sept are down 19% from August and yet starts are still near the highest levels ever. Sept is 4th highest total starts ever, all four of the highest ever months of new starts are in 2022. July and Aug were the two highest months of new starts ever. Total growth in starts over 2021-2022 – Nonres Bldgs +50% Nonbldg Infra +21% Residential +22%.

STARTS

Construction Spending will not be participating in a 2023 recession. Except, residential might. Residential starts in 2021 were up +21% to a really high new high. But starts are forecast flat in 2022 and 2023. Spending grew 44% in the last 2yrs, but inflation was 30% of that 44%. With zero growth in starts forecast for 22-23, spending struggles to keep up with inflation. Residential will post only an increase of 3% in 2023 spending, but midyear there is potential for 6 consecutive down months.

SPENDING BY SECTOR CURRENT $ AND INFLATION ADJUSTED CONSTANT $

Nonres Bldgs new starts last 2yrs (2021-2022) are up 50%. Spending next 2yrs is forecast up 22%.

Nonbldg starts 2022-23 are forecast up 50%. Spending 2023-24 forecast up 20%.

Residential construction (Dodge) starts since Jan 2021 have posted 17 out of 21 months of the highest residential starts ever posted. The 5 highest months ever are all in 2022.

Nonresidential Bldgs starts in Sept dropped 23% from August and yet still that was the 3rd highest month ever. July and August were 2nd and 1st.

Construction starts for Nonresidential Bldgs posted each of the last 4 (consecutive) months thru October higher than any months ever before. The avg of last 4 (consecutive) months is 33% higher than the avg of the best previous 4 mo ever (even non-consecutive). Growth in Manufacturing construction starts for 2022 far surpasses growth in any other market, up over 150% year-to-date.

Construction Spending Sept total up 0.2% from Aug. Aug & Jul were revised up 1.1% & 1.3%. Total spending YTD thru Sept’22 is up 11.4% from Sept’21. MAJOR movers; Mnfg up 16% since Jun. Jul & Aug were revised up 7.4% & 8.4%. Highway is up 9% since June. Jul & Aug were revised up by 4.0% & 4.4%.

SPENDING FORECAST

Total construction spending for 2022 is on track to increase +11.1%. Residential +16.8%, Nonres Bldgs +9.5%, Nonbldg +0.5%.

Comm/Rtl +18% Mnfg +32% Power -8% Pub Utilities +14%.

Current and predicted Inflation updated 11-16-22:
  • 2020 Rsdn Inflation  4.6%, Nonres Bldgs 2.7%, Nonbldg Infra -0.3%
  • 2021 Rsdn Inflation 13.3%, Nonres Bldgs 6.6%, Nonbldg Infra 7.8%
  • 2022 Rsdn Inflation 14.9%, Nonres Bldgs 11.4%, Nonbldg Infra 12.0%
  • 2023 Rsdn Inflation 5.9%, Nonres Bldgs 4.5%, Nonbldg Infra 3.8%

Inflation adjusted volume is spending minus inflation.

Total volume for 2022 falls 1%. Rsdn +3%, Nonres Bldgs -1%, Nonbldg -9%.

Total volume for 2023 is up 1%. Rsdn -3%, Nonres Bldgs +8%, Nonbldg +2%.

SPENDING TOTAL ALL $ CURRENT $ AND INFLATION ADJUSTED CONSTANT $

Overall Construction Spending is up 15% since the onset of the pandemic, but, after adjusting for 25% inflation, volume is down 10%. Residential jobs are near even on track with volume, but Nonres and Nonbldg have volume deficits of approx 20-25% vs jobs.

  • Feb 2020 to Aug 2022
  • Resdn spend +42%, vol +6.5%, jobs +7%
  • Nonres Bldgs spend -8%, vol -24%, jobs -3%
  • NonBldg spend -7.5%, vol -24%, jobs +1%
JOBS VS CONSTRUCTION VOLUME VS SPENDING (VOL = SPENDING MINUS INFLATION

Labor Shortage? Jobs should track volume, not spending growth. Vol = spending minus inflation. Volume is down while jobs are up. If the same production levels ($ put-in-place per worker) as 2019 were to be regained, theoretically, nonresidential volume would need to increase 20% with no increase in nonresidential jobs. I don’t expect that to occur, therefore, productivity will remain well below that of 2019.

LABOR PRODUCTIVITY

Over the next year or two, there could be several billion$ of construction spending to repair hurricane damaged homes in Florida. That spending will NOT be reported in Census spending reports. Renovations to repair natural disaster damage are not recorded in construction spending. Construction spending to replace homes entirely lost to damage IS reported in Census spending, but is reported as renovations/repair, not new SF or MF construction.

RESIDENTIAL SPENDING SF-MF-RENO CURRENT $ AND CONSTANT $

Construction Starts Thru Aug’22

Total construction starts for August did indeed fall (9%) as predicted from the lofty highs recorded in July. This is not alarming as you will see why.

Nonres Bldgs construction starts in July, $ as reported by Dodge, increased 75%+ from the previous month and 65%+ from the previous 3mo and 6mo avgs. That is a once in a decade increase. In 2018, starts posted an increase of 60%. The July and August 2022 starts is the only time starts exceeded that of 2018.

Historically, then starts would fall back to the 3mo or 6mo (normal) avg rate within the next two months. Never have starts increased the month after or even within the next several months after reaching such a high level. Until now. After posting a 75% increase in July, Nonres Bldgs starts for August increased 7%.

The total dollar value of Nonres Bldgs starts in July and August exceeded the total for all Nonres Bldgs starts in Jan+Feb+Mar+Apr.

Even assuming the next 4 months starts fall back to less than the avg rate before the extreme highs in July and August, Nonres Bldgs starts are on track to increase 20%+ for the year, an annual rate of growth achieved only once before, in 2014. With that assumption, for the next 4 months starts will fall 45% from the current high and still be enough to post the highest year ever. Don’t be alarmed if over the next 4 months Nonres Bldgs starts decline from the lofty highs in July and August. Those monthly highs seem unsustainable.

Non-bldg starts are on track to increase +14% total for 2022. Year-to-date non-bldg starts are up 21% with the largest increase in Utility/Gas plants. The entire decline in total starts for August was in non-bldg, but the August level, down 36% from July, is still the 2nd highest since Nov 2019 and in fact the 3rd highest ever.

What’s causing these huge gains? Along with moderate strength across many markets, mega-project starts in last 2 months. $25bil in 3 manufacturing plants, $15bil in 2 LNG projects (these are non-bldg) and $10bil for an airport terminal. Most of the spending from these projects, expected at the midpoint of construction, will occur after 2023.

Residential starts are on track to gain +2% in 2022. A 2% gain may not seem like much but is on top of a 23% gain in 2021 starts. The 1st six months of residential starts in 2022 is at an all-time high. Residential construction starts for JJA 3mo avg is down 10% from the peak in the previous 3mo. But that peak qtr, MAM, is up 5% from the total in 2021, which was up 22% from 2020. Residential starts fell a total of 14% over 3 consecutive months from the peak in Apr to Jul. Starts in August are up 1% from Jul. Avg starts for the last 20 months, in current $, are above the former high in 2005. But inflation adjusted constant$ would put recent starts 60% lower than the former 2005 highs.

Construction Forecast 2022 – Jan22

Spending and Volume updated 1-4-22. Jobs updated 1-7-22

1-28-22 See the bottom of this post for a link to download a PDF of the complete article.

See the link at end for full report updated 2-11-22 to include year-end data.

5-6-22 The complete article has been updated and is here

Construction Forecast 2022 Update 5-6-22

The construction data leading into 2022 is unlike anything we have ever seen. Construction starts were up in 2021, but backlog leading into 2022 is down. That is not normal. Backlog is rarely down and usually when starts have been down the previous year. In this case the starts declined in 2020, but that 2020 decline was so broad and so deep, even with an increase in starts in 2021, backlog to start 2022 has not yet recovered (to the start of 2020). Spending for 2021 was up 8%, but after adjusting for inflation, real volume after inflation was down. Last time that happened was 2006 and 2002, the only two other times that happened in the last 35 years. Let’s have a look at all the data that sets up 2022.

New Construction Starts for 2022, as reported by Dodge Data and Analytics, are forecast up +5% total for the year. Residential starts will be up +2%, but that is on top of a +33% gain over the previous two years. Nonresidential Bldgs starts will be up +8%, just recovering to pre-pandemic levels. Nonbuilding starts are forecast up +8%, still -6% below 2019.

Construction Backlog leading into Jan 2022 vs Jan 2021 is up only +1%, but it’s still down 8% vs Jan 2020. Residential backlog is up +21%, but Nonresidential Bldgs backlog is up only +2%, still down -14% from the start of 2020 and Non-Building backlog is down -8% yoy, now -17% below the start of 2020.

Nonresidential Bldgs starting backlog for 2022 is still down -14% from the start of 2020 and Non-Building backlog is now -17% lower than the start of 2020. That could weigh on spending for several years.

(Construction Analytics measures Backlog at the start of the year vs backlog at the start of the previous year. This is different than the ABC Backlog indicator, which measures current month’s backlog compared to previous year’s total revenue).

Backlog at the beginning of the year or new starts within the year does not give an indication of what direction spending will take within the year. Backlog is increasing if new starts during the year is greater than spending during the year. An increase in backlog could immediately increase the level of monthly spending activity, or it could maintain a level rate of market activity, but spread over a longer duration. In this case, there is some of both in the forecast. It takes several years for all the starts in a year to be completed. Cash flow shows the spending over time.

Spending for 2021, with 11 months actual in year-to-date, is forecast up +7.9%. However, that can be misleading. Residential spending for 2021 is up 22% while Nonresidential Bldgs is down -5% and Non-Bldg is down -1%.

In almost every data release this year, Census has revised the previous month upwards. That has been adding to my forecast throughout the year.

Spending includes inflation which does not add to the volume of work.

My current and predicted Inflation rates:

  • 2020 Residential 5%, Nonres Bldgs 4.8%, Nonbldg Infra Avg 4.5%
  • 2021 Residential 14.2%, Nonres Bldgs 6.8%, Nonbldg Infra Avg 7.8%
  • 2022 Residential 7%, Nonres Bldgs 4.5%, Nonbldg Infra Avg 3.7%
  • There is greater chance for rates to move up than down.

After adjusting for inflation, total volume in 2021 is down -2.5%. Residential volume for 2021 is up +7.4% while Nonresidential Bldgs volume is down -11% and Non-Bldg volume is down -8.1%.

Volume declines should lead to lower inflation as firms compete for fewer new projects. However, if jobs growth continues while volume declines, then productivity continues to decline and that will add to labor cost inflation. Since 2010, Construction Spending is up over 100%, but after adjusting for inflation, Volume is up only 28%. Jobs are up 41%.

Jobs average over the year 2021 increased +2.3%. Volume was down -2.5%

Spending Forecast for 2022 is expected to increase +3.0%. Residential spending for 2022 is forecast up +5.7%. Nonresidential Bldgs forecast is up +3.5%. Non-Bldg forecast is down -3.6%.

Some of the biggest impacts to nonresidential buildings spending are: Warehouses, 60% of Comm/Retail, new starts are up 50% since Jan 2020. Comm/Retail could post the largest gains in 2022 nonres bldgs spending. Lodging starts even with 24% growth in 2022, are still down 50% from Jan 2020. Manufacturing starts dropped over 50% in 2020 but gained nearly all of that back in 2021. Manufacturing spending in 2022 should return to the level of 2019.

Many construction firms judge their backlog growth by the remaining estimate to complete of all jobs under contract. The problem with that, for example, is that Nonresidential Buildings spending (revenues) are expected to grow +3.5% in 2022, but after adjusting for inflation the actual volume of work is down about -1%. By this method, in part, these firms are accounting for an increase in inflation dollars passing through their hands. Spending includes inflation, which does not add to the volume of work.

Total volume for 2022 is forecast down -2.5%. After adjusting for inflation, Residential volume for 2022 is forecast down -1%. Nonresidential Bldgs volume is also forecast down -1% and Non-Bldg volume is forecast down -7%.

The Non-Building Infrastructure spending forecast for 2022 is more affected by a drop of -17% in starts in 2020 (2020 starts would have generated 30% of 2022 spending) than by any increase in starts in 2022 (which would generate only 15% of 2022 spending).

Non-building construction starts recorded 18 months (from April 2020 through September 2021) averaging 16% below the Q3’19-Q4’19 average of starts. Non-building Infrastructure Backlog beginning 2022 is down -17% from Jan 2020, the largest two-year drop on record. Non-building Infrastructure Spending has declined in 15 of the last 21 months.

Why is spending still down in Non-building? Here’s a few notes on construction starts that drive spending.

Power starts for the 3yr period 2020-2022, even with 11% growth in 2022, are expected to average 33% lower compared to 2017-2019. Transportation starts for the 3yr period 2020-2022 are expected to average 40% lower compared to 2017-2019. These two make up 50% of the Non-bldg sector and we could see spending remain depressed in both for the next two years.

Highway starts through 2020 are up 15% in 3 years. But spending in 2019 through 2021 has remained constant. This might be an example of adding new starts but it doesn’t show in spending because work is spread out over many years, or this could be indicating no real change in volume but a change in share of total market being captured in the starts.

On average about 20% of new nonresidential buildings construction starts gets spent within the year started, 50% is spent in the next year and 30% is spent in future years. (For residential the spending curve is more like 70%-30%).

Nonresidential Buildings construction starts recorded 12 consecutive months (from April 2020 through March 2021) at 20% or more below the Q4’19-Q1’20 average of starts. Nonres Bldgs spending has posted 17 of the last 21 months down and is still down 13% from Feb 2020.

Construction Analytics has been forecasting these drops in Nonresidential spending since August of 2020.

In constant (inflation adjusted) dollars, as of Nov. 2021, Nonres Bldgs spending is 20% below the Feb 2020 peak. The bottom is expected in mid-2022.

Below is the Non-building plot, inflation adjusted. Both these plots show there has been no increase since Feb 2020 in volume of nonresidential or non-building work to support jobs growth, and there is little to no help in 2022.

If new construction starts in 2022 post an add of $100 billion in new starts for infrastructure, only about $20 billion of that would get put-in-place in 2022. The cash flow schedule for that $100 bil of new starts would extend out over 3 or 4 years. Most of that $100 bil would get spent in 2023 and 2024.

Current Final Demand pricing for Nonres Bldgs and Trades is highest on record. Prices support high inflation this year and next. Do not expect inflation to turn to deflation in 2022 or any time in the near future. The only time in 50 years that construction experienced deflation was in the period 2008 to 2011. At that time conditions were 10x worse than now.

1-7-22 Construction Jobs growth

2021 Dec21 vs Dec20 Rsdn+75k, Nonres Bldgs +61k, Nonbldg +24k

but annual averages tell a much different story

AVG21 vs AVG20 Rsdn+153k(+5.3%), Nonres Bldgs +28k(+0.8%), Nonbldg +9k(+0.9%)

Dec vs Dec simply compares jobs at 2 points in time, without the benefit of what occurred in the other 11 months of the year, so does not tell us what took place over the year. The annual average gives a much clearer indication of jobs growth over the year because it accounts for the peaks and dips of all 12 months during the year.

Jobs average over the year 2021 increased +2.3%. After adjusting for inflation, total volume in 2021 is down -2.5%. Residential volume for 2021 is up +7.4% while Nonresidential Bldgs volume is down -11% and Non-Bldg volume is down -8.1%.

If jobs are increasing faster than volume of work, productivity is declining. For example, nonres bdgs volume declined 11%, but nonres bldgs jobs increase 0.8%. That’s a 12% swing in productivity. Since labor is about 35% of the cost of a project, if productivity declines by 12% Then inflation rises by 12% x 35% = 4%. The most recent year drop in volume, while jobs increased, added 4% to nonres bldgs inflation for the year.

If jobs are increasing faster than volume of work (a negative impact) can we tell if it’s production employees or supervisory employees? BLS reports ALL construction jobs (~7.5million) and Production jobs (~5.5million). The difference between these two data sets is supervisory employees.

Looking at the average number of construction jobs in the last 4 years, the average of 2021 jobs vs the average of 2017 jobs, production jobs increased +5%, but supervisory jobs increased +12%.

Looking at 2021 vs 2019, in the past 2 years, production jobs decreased by -1.5%, but supervisory jobs increased +1.7%. During this period spending increased +3.5%, but after adjusting for inflation, volume declined -9%.

In 2011, supervisory jobs was 24% of all construction jobs. Now it is 35%. Growth in supervisory jobs has had a greater negative impact than production jobs on the spread between jobs and volume.

Jobs and Volume of work growth should move in tandem.

If jobs grow faster than volume, productivity is declining. When these plot lines grow wider apart with jobs on top, that is a sign of productivity decline. That’s part of inflation.

And finally, here’s one of the markers I use to check my forecast modeling, my forecasting performance tracking index. The light plot line is forecast predicted from my modeling. The dark plot line is actual construction spending. Even after any separation in the indices, the plots should move at the same slope. Almost without fail, the forecast model, estimated spending from cashflow, predicts the changes in direction of actual spending.

See the full report updated 2-11-22 to include year-end data.

Year End 2021 – Construction Forecast 2022 – Briefs

New Construction Starts, as reported by Dodge Data and Analytics, are up +13% for the total three years 2020+2021(actuals) + 2022(estm). Residential starts will be up +35%. Nonresidential Bldgs starts are at 0%. Nonbuilding starts are down -7%. This includes the forecast that has Nonresidential Bldgs and Non-Bldg starts both up +8% in 2022.

Construction Backlog leading into Jan 2022 vs Jan 2020 will be down -8%. Residential backlog will be up +34%, but Nonresidential Bldgs backlog will be down -14% and Non-Bldg backlog will be down -17%.

(Construction Analytics measures Backlog at the start of the year vs backlog at the start of the previous year. This is compared to ABC Backlog indicator, which measures current backlog compared to previous year’s revenue.)

Backlog at the beginning of the year or new starts within the year does not give an indication of what direction spending will take within the year. Backlog increases if new starts during the year is greater than spending during the year. An increase in backlog could immediately increase the level of monthly spending activity, or it could maintain a level rate of market activity, but spread over a longer duration. In this case, there is some of both in the forecast. It takes several years for all the starts in a year to be completed. Cash flow shows the spending over time.

Spending for 2021, with 10 months actual in year-to-date, is forecast up +7.4%. However, that can be misleading. Residential spending for 2021 is up 22% while Nonresidential Bldgs is down -5% and Non-Bldg is down -1.7%.

Spending includes inflation which does not add to the volume of work.

“This is the beginning of trying to work through supply chain problems…inflation will still get worse before it gets better ” Diane Swonk, Chief Economist Grant Thornton 11-12-21

My current and predicted Inflation rates:

  • 2020 Residential 5%, Nonres Bldgs 4.8%, Nonbldg Infra Avg 4.5%
  • 2021 Residential 14.2%, Nonres Bldgs 6.8%, Nonbldg Infra Avg 7.8%
  • 2022 Residential 7%, Nonres Bldgs 4.5%, Nonbldg Infra Avg 3.7%
  • There is greater chance for rates to move up than down.

After adjusting for inflation, total volume in 2021 is down -3%. Residential volume for 2021 is up +7% while Nonresidential Bldgs volume is down -11% and Non-Bldg volume is down -8%.

Volume declines should lead to lower inflation as firms compete for fewer new projects. However, if jobs growth continues while volume declines, then productivity continues to decline and that will add to labor cost inflation.

Jobs average over the year 2021 increased +2.3%.

Spending Forecast for 2022 is expected to increase +2.5%. Residential spending for 2022 is forecast up +5%. Nonresidential Bldgs forecast is up +4%. Non-Bldg forecast is down -5%.

One important thing that happens when we find out inflation rose much faster than we would have thought, production hasn’t been as great as we thought.

When volume decreases and jobs increase, productivity is declining.

Many construction firms judge their backlog growth by the remaining estimate to complete of all jobs under contract. The problem with that, for example, is that Nonresidential Buildings spending (revenues) are expected to grow +4% in 2022, but after adjusting for inflation the actual volume of work is down about -1%. By this method, in part these firms are accounting for an increase in inflation dollars passing through their hands. Spending includes inflation, which does not add to the volume of work.

The Non-Building Infrastructure spending forecast for 2022 is more affected by a drop of -17% in starts in 2020 (2020 starts would have generated 30% of 2022 spending) than by any increase in starts in 2022 (which would generate only 15% of 2022 spending).

After adjusting for inflation, Residential volume for 2022 is forecast down -1.5% while Nonresidential Bldgs volume is forecast down -1% and Non-Bldg volume is forecast down -9%. Total volume for 2022 is forecast down -3%.

On average about 20% of new nonresidential buildings construction starts gets spent within the year started, 50% is spent in the next year and 30% is spent in future years. (For residential the spending curve is more like 70%-30%).

Nonresidential Buildings construction starts recorded 12 consecutive months (from April 2020 through March 2021) at 20% or more below the Q4’19-Q1’20 average of starts. Now 20 months after the onset of the pandemic, Nonres Bldgs starts have posted 16 down months and are still down 13% from Mar 2020.

In constant (inflation adjusted) dollars, as of Oct. 2021, Nonres Bldgs spending is 20% below the Feb 2020 peak. The bottom is expected in mid-2022.

If new construction starts in 2022 post an add of $100 billion in new starts for infrastructure, only about $20 billion of that would get put-in-place in 2022. The cash flow schedule for that $100 bil of new starts would extend out over 3 or 4 years. Most of that $100 bil would get spent in 2023 and 2024.

Current Final Demand pricing for Nonres Bldgs and Trades is highest on record. Prices support high inflation this year and next. Do not expect inflation to turn to deflation in 2022. The only time in 50 years that construction experienced deflation was in the period 2008 to 2011. At that time conditions were 10x worse than now.

An interesting question came up recently, related to the plot below, that prompted me to look at jobs data a little deeper. The question was, If jobs are increasing faster than volume of work (negative impact) can we tell if it’s production employees or supervisory employees? BLS reports ALL construction jobs (~7.5million) and Production jobs (~5.5million). The difference between these two data sets is supervisory employees.

Looking at the average number of construction jobs in the last 4 years, the average of 2021 jobs vs the average of 2017 jobs, production jobs increased +5%, but supervisory jobs increased +12%.

Looking at 2021 vs 2019, in the past 2 years, production jobs decreased by -1.5%, but supervisory jobs increased +1.7%. During this period spending increased +3.5%, but after adjusting for inflation, volume declined -9%.

In 2011, supervisory jobs was 24% of all construction jobs. Now it is 35%. Growth in supervisory jobs has had a greater negative impact than production jobs on the spread between jobs and volume.

And finally, here’s one of the markers I use to check my forecast modeling, my forecasting performance tracking index. The light plot line is forecast predicted from my modeling. The dark plot line is actual construction spending. Even after any separation in the indices, the plots should move at the same slope. Almost without fail, the forecast model, estimated spending from cashflow, predicts the changes in direction of actual spending.

Nonresidential Bldgs Forecast 2022 Improves

11-8-21

Lots of construction data came out last week. Sept spending, Oct jobs and Dodge Outlook 2022 for new starts. There have been major revisions to new starts since the June and July starts reports. Since June data, starts increased over what had been forecast for 2021 in Residential +12%, Comm/Rtl +20%, Mnfg +41%, Educ +4%, Rec +38%, Enviro+6%. These increases to 2021 starts improve the spending forecast for 2022. Mnfg, Rec and Enviro starts for 2022 were all reduced slightly.

See Construction Economics in Pictures 11-5-21 for current forecast.

Nonresidential buildings starts increased in 2021 by more than the marked up equivalent of $40 billion in spending (over the life of the projects). About half of that increase in spending would occur in 2022. So this increase in the starts forecast really pushed up the forecast for 2022 spending. All sectors now are forecast higher spending in 2022, but the biggest change is in nonres bldgs. These two plots show nonres bldgs as it was forecast based on June data on Aug. 1, and again as of Sept spending/Outlook22 starts data released Nov. 3. The expectation now is for an upward turn in spending beginning in the 4th quarter 2021. Previous models all had poor 2020/2021 starts reflecting a bottom in nonres bldgs spending just about mid-2022. The spending increase leading into 2022 moves the spending bottom to a point much sooner in 4th quarter 2021.

Nonres bldgs spending prior to release of Dodge Outlook 2022

Nonres bldgs spending forecast as of 11-3-21 includes release of Dodge Outlook 2022

Forecast spending bottom was mid-2022, now is Q4 2021. Although total spending is now forecast to increase 2.5% in 2022, that is still less than inflation, so real construction volume in nonres bldgs is still down slightly for 2022. The forecast bottom for nonres bldgs inflation adjusted constant $ is still mid-2022.

Construction Spending Update 10-1-21

Construction Spending Actual through August 2021

Total Construction Spending compared to same period 2020 is now up 7.0% year-to-date (ytd). Residential spending continues to perform better than forecast and is now up 25.8% ytd. Nonresidential Buildings is now down -8.7% and Nonbuilding Infrastructure is down -3.8%, both improved in the last two months.

The single largest impact to the change in this forecast from last month is Residential. Spending continues to perform better than cash flow predicted from starts would indicate. For August, I expected residential spending to drop 1% compared to July, but it increased 0.4%. Also, it increased from an upwardly revised July. In this August spending report, residential spending was revised upwards in both June and July by 1% each month. That pushes the total up for my forecast for the year.

Highway also posted large upward revisions, +3% to June and +2% to July, but these revisions combined represent only $515 million. The Residential revisions alone total $2.2 billion, more than double the revisions to all other markets combined, including Highway.

Year-to-date through August, while residential is up 25.8%, all but one single nonresidential market is down. 15 of 16 nonresidential markets are down -8.7% for nonresidential buildings and -3.8% for nonbuilding infrastructure. Only Sewage/Waste Water is up 3.6% ytd., but that’s only 2% of all nonresidential construction. It’s half of the $ in the table item Sewer / Water / Conservation.

By year end I expect residential spending to finish up 20%, nonresidential buildings to finish down 7% and nonbuilding to finish down 3%.

Construction starts are slowly leading the way to recovery, with remarkable strength in residential, but construction spending, which is dependent mostly on starts from previous years (nonres bldgs starts in 2020 down -20%), will remain depressed for nonresidential construction well into 2022. New nonresidential starts could double from the current rate of growth and it still wouldn’t be enough to turn 2021 nonresidential spending positive.

Residential starts gained only +3% in 2019, increased +6% in 2020 and are forecast up +9% in 2021 and +7% in 2022. Residential spending surprisingly increased +15% in 2020 to $638 billion and is forecast up +20% to $767 billion in 2021, but only +4% in 2022. Both residential starts and spending are at all-time highs. That is driving total spending to new highs.

Nonresidential Bldgs starts fell -4% in 2019, -21% in 2020 and are now forecast up +8% in both 2021 and 2022. New starts for 2021 are still -20% below the peak in 2018. Most of the fall off in starts in 2020 would have produced peak spending in 2021. Nonresidential Bldgs spending fell only -2% in 2020 but is expected to fall -7% in 2021 and -2% in 2022.

Comparing combined 2020 and 2021 starts, the only markets to show positive growth over 2019 are Commercial/Retail, +5% (due to warehouses) and Healthcare, +7% (due to hospitals). The average growth in starts of all other nonresidential buildings markets for 2020 x 2021 combined is still 35% lower than 2019. Public Bldgs increased in 2020 but fell back in 2021.

My forecast, ever since August 2020, has been showing a decline in nonresidential buildings spending on a long downward trend through 2021 and into 2022. That forecast was then and still is now correct. The nonresidential building spending plot below shows that spending has declined in 16 of the last 18 months. Spending hits a bottom in 2022.

Nonbuilding starts were up 3% in 2019, fell -15% in 2020 and forecast indicates +6% growth in both 2021 and 2022. Nonbuilding starts are 10% lower than 2019. Nonbuilding spending gained only +1% in 2020, but the forecast is down -3% for 2021 and is expected to drop -5% in 2022. Like nonresidential buildings, the large drop in 2020 starts would have had peak spending well out at the midpoints of those projects, many of which would have been in 2021 or 2022.

For more on construction starts SEE New Construction Starts as of Aug’21

Behind the Headlines

An anomaly in the data is the Manufacturing spending data versus expectations. In 2020, Dodge posted a 57% drop in new starts for Manufacturing. Since many of these type projects have long time spans to completion and peak spending is near the midpoint of a project schedule, most of the drop in spending from that huge loss of new starts would normally occur in years following the starts. I predicted the drop would occur in 2021 and 2022, expecting it would produce a 20% decline in spending in 2021. But year-to-date Manufacturing spending is down only 1%. It did produce an 11% decline in 2020 spending, but that is not the extent of the total loss. This puts into question either my forecast of when the drop would occur or percent decline in starts reported. You can’t have a drop of 57% in starts activity and get only a 1% decline in spending the following year. Based on spending in 2020 and 2021 ytd, my forecast model is indicating there may be a variance in 2020 starts data % of market captured.

Part of the difficulty with the manufacturing data arises from the fact that history shows only approximately $20bil/yr to $30bil/yr is captured in the new starts data reported and yet spending has been in the range of $70bil/yr to $80bil/yr. That means only about 25% to 35% of the total market activity is being captured in the starts data. But from this we need to predict 100% of the future spending. This % of total market captured in the starts data fluctuates up and down. So the difficulty is predicting actually how much of the market is captured, and that varies. The question is this: How much of the change in the starts data reflects an expected change in future market activity versus how much of the change in starts reported represents an unidentified variance in % of market captured. A variance in % of market captured in the data may not indicate a change in future market activity (spending). Since project schedules can be anywhere from less than 20 months to more than 4 years, any given year of actual spending could have some portion of that spending generated by project starts from the previous 4 or more years. It takes several years of actual spending to identify the differences in these two parts of the question. Only future data will help resolve this question.

Another set of data to question is residential starts. Currently, for 8 months through August, starts are up 18% over 2020. Starts began to climb in July 2020 and posted a very strong final 5 months of 2020. This year average starts to date is at all-time highs. But Dodge, in the 3Q21 Outlook, forecast 2021 residential starts up about 9%. In order for that to happen, for the remaining 4 months residential starts would need to drop 20% from the current average rate, 10% below the most recent month. That seems a bit unrealistic. That would set the monthly rate back to a point lower than anything experienced since the pandemic lows in Apr-May-Jun last year. It seems to me residential starts will finish quite a bit higher than that. I’m carrying 15% growth for the year in my forecast.

Recovery

Recovery in both nonresidential buildings and nonbuilding backlog begins to build in a few markets in 2021. Even though starts growth in % is greater than spending growth in %, overall spending in nonresidential buildings and non-buildings in dollars, not %, is exceeding new starts. Therefore both will begin 2022 with lower backlog than 2021. Total all nonresidential 2021 starting backlog dropped -9% from 2020. Starting backlog to begin 2022 will be down another -5%. Based on forecast growth in new starts, backlog increases 4% for 2023.

Aside from residential, recovery to the levels of revenue (spending) recorded in Q1 2020 or earlier won’t show up before 2024.

The following table shows ytd through August $ and forecast for 2021/2022. Almost every nonresidential market is down ytd and down compared to the average in Q1 2020 before Pandemic Recession.

Impact of Pandemic Slowdown

The impact of reduced starts in 2020 is showing up in the 2021 year-to-date results. Total Nonresidential Buildings starts were down -20% from April 2020 through March 2021 compared to pre-pandemic high in Q1 2020. Nonres Bldgs starts improved from Apr-Jul 2021 and for those 4 months managed to equal the pre-pandemic high. However, the 2021 average year-to-date through August is still 14% lower than the pre-pandemic high. Nonbuilding Infrastructure starts returned to pre-pandemic high several months ago, but have since slowed.

Due to the large drop in new nonresidential buildings starts from Apr 2020, that continued at a level down -20% until March 2021, some markets will be affected by a downward trend in spending for two to three years.

The greatest downward impact from a -20%, year-long loss of starts in nonresidential spending will be felt throughout 2021 and into 2022.

Construction Analytics has been describing this situation and provided plots showing what would occur in nonresidential buildings spending since August 2020. A review of the historical forecasts will show those forecasts mostly correct. The plot below, Construction Spending by Sector, shows the current forecast and actual data through August 2021. The explanation and the plotted data have been similar since last year.

Over the next 9 months, every sector will post more down months (in spending) than up months, although the declines will be most noticeable in nonresidential buildings. The plot line for Nonresidential Buildings may not look like much is going on, but in a minute you will see the magnitude of that downward sloping line.

Overall performance forecast by sector has changed very little since May of this year.

While most markets recover to positive new starts growth in 2021, spending growth lags, showing the downward trend in 2021 as a result of lost starts in 2020.

This next plot changes the scale so the nonresidential buildings spending data can be visualized much easier. This is the exact same data as in the Construction Spending by Sector plot above. The scale change helps to visualize the dramatic decline in nonresidential buildings spending. From Apr through Dec 2020, nonresidential buildings spending fell at a rate of 1.75%/month. Jan 2021 and Mar 2021 are the only up months since Feb 2020. From Apr 2021 through Aug 2021, the rate of spending fell at 1.25%/month. Currently, the annual rate of spending is 17% below the pre-pandemic peak. By midyear 2022, the annual rate of spending will be -20% lower than the pre-pandemic peak. It could take two to three years after that to recover to the pre-pandemic level of spending.

A typical batch of new nonresidential construction starts within a year gets spent over a cash flow schedule similar to 20/50/30, that is, 20% of all starts in the calendar year gets spent in the year started, 50% in the next year and 30% in years following. Total nonresidential buildings starts in 2020 were down -20% ($90 bil in spending) and nonbuilding starts were down -10% ($35bil). Under normal conditions, we know how much of that $125 bil would have occurred in 2020, 2021 and 2022. That’s a loss of spending this year, and that loss remains a steeply downward slope as long as starts remain depressed. Nonresidential buildings starts, depressed for 13 months, posted starts indicating recovery beginning in April this year.

Infrastructure

Let’s assume INFRASTRUCTURE BILL new starts begin in Jan 2022, and let’s also assume $100 billion worth of work gets awarded in 2022. That’s $100 billion of starts in 2022. Only a maximum of 20% (the 1st year portion of the cash flow 20/50/30) gets spent in the 1st year. Therefore, even if $100 billion in new infrastructure starts begin in 2022, only 20% of that or only $20 billion would get spent in 2022. So, there will be very little impact on total 2022 construction spending as a result.

That changes dramatically for the second year. For 2023 we get 50% of the spending from 2021 starts and 20% from 2022 starts, so $70 billion in spending, growth of $50 billion.. That’s already more than the industry can handle.

Total Public Infrastructure and Public Institutional, the total public work pool for which infrastructure investment is a potential, represents a total LESS THAN $350 BILLION annually, less than 25% of all annual construction. Average growth is $12 billion/year. Looking back to 1993, this subset has never exceeded $35 billion in growth in a single year. If we award (start) $100 billion in new work each year for the next 5 years, we would cap out the growth rate for spending in this subset of work, with no room for any additional new starts from any other sources. The work would be completed after 8 years.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is spend-public-infra-institu-8-2-21.jpg

Forecasting Reliability

All the forecast spending in the data above is developed from monthly cash flow of new starts. This plot shows the history of the cash flow forecast (the light colored line) to the actual spending growth (the darker line). The cash flow forecast has been predicting the drop in nonres bldgs spending since last year. Although actual spending is somewhat more uneven, the forecast accurately predicts the direction spending is headed.

2021 Midyear Forecasts

Here’s how my (Construction Analytics) midyear spending forecast compared to various firms’ data published in the AIA Midyear Forecasts and how we all compare to the current August year-to-date spending. The year-to-date (ytd) performance provides insight into expected final 2021 performance. For example, the year-to-date Educational spending is -10.6% with 8 months of spending recorded. You can see in the table, one firm had forecast that educational will finish up 3.5% for the year. (Not shown here, but the AIA Consensus for Educ. is -2.1%). With 8 months of actual ytd data and only 4 months remaining (estimate to complete or etc), we can tell what would be needed in the remaining 4 months to get to any particular estimate.

To finish the year up +3.5%, for the next 4 months Educational spending would need to average +32% year-over-year (yoy) growth per month over last year to swing from currently down -10.6% to up +3.5% . Well, Educational spending is down 16% from the 2020 high, has been averaging down 11% yoy for the last 7 months, has fallen 7 of the last 8 months and is down mo/mo an average of 1.5%/mo for the last 6 months. With this performance over the past year, the probability is not likely at all that Educational construction spending is going to flip from a negative yoy -10.6% to an avg of +32%/mo for the remaining 4 months to finish the year up +3.5%. (To meet the AIA Consensus for Educ., the final 4 months would need to swing to +15%/mo). While there are some good estimates, there are many more examples like this in the AIA forecasts.

In 2020, more of Construction Analytics midyear forecasts by market were closer to the final actual than any other firm reporting in the AIA Midyear Outlook. Here’s the 2021 midyear forecasts compared to the current August year-to-date. Every forecast in the AIA Midyear 2021 report predicts 2022 nonresidential buildings spending will increase. See my spending forecast table above in this report where I’ve projected many nonresidential market down in 2022.

JOBS DATA has been updated with the jobs data release on 10-8-21

SEE Construction Jobs Outlook 10-11-21

New Construction Starts as of Aug’21

Construction Starts for August reported by Dodge.

Residential construction starts fell 9% in August, but that is after the previous 8 months of Residential starts were each higher than any other months ever recorded. The average of new residential starts for 2021 is 18% higher than the pre-pandemic high in Feb 2020 and 24% higher than the average for 2020..

The 4 highest months on record for residential construction starts are Mar (peak), Apr, May and Jun 2021, indicating spending should remain high at least through 2021. My current forecast has 2021 residential construction spending up 19% for the year.

Compare new construction starts for residential to new starts for nonresidential buildings. The current situation is like night and day.

Nonresidential Bldgs construction starts fell 13% in August. Compared to the pre-pandemic high (Feb 2020), May (+8%) and Jun (+1%) are the only two months higher. July was 2% lower, Aug 14% lower. The average for all 2020 finished 20% lower than the pre-pandemic high in Feb 2020. New 2021 starts avg is 9% below Feb 2020.

If monthly starts can recover to the pre-pandemic high of Feb 2020 from here on forward, then the low point of spending will be in the 3rd qtr 2021. Monthly spending still would not recover to pre-pandemic level until Jan 2023. However, we are currently not at a consistent recovery to pre-pandemic levels of new starts and the longer we remain below recovery level both dates would move out.

New starts in almost every Nonresidential Bldgs market are up for 2021, but some of that 2021 growth is off of such a low base in 2020, the combined current level is still quite low, far below the pre-pandemic highs. Compared to pre-pandemic starts, Mnfg is down -30%, Office -13%, Lodging -57%, Amuse/Rec -30%. Only Healthcare +5% and Public Bldgs +8% are up. The good news is total nonresidential buildings starts for the 4 months Apr’21 thru July’21 is now 52% higher than Apr’20 thru Jul’20.

Manufacturing was by far the worst performer in 2020, new starts in 2020 down 55%. Although Lodging gets a lot of attention because starts dropped 50% and spending reacted immediately by dropping -13% in 2020 and currently -30% for 2021, but that’s only for a total decline of $13 billion over two years. Manufacturing spending, for projects which have longer durations, fell $9 billion in 2020 and could drop another $12 billion over the next two years.

Manufacturing construction spending peaked between 2015 (all-time high of $83bil) and 2019 ($81bil). We won’t see spending like that again before 2025 unless new construction starts double and that is not in the forecast.

New manufacturing starts for 2021 are up more than 35% for 2021, but that 35% increase is from 2020’s 55% decline, an 8yr low, so 2021 is still lower than the previous 3 years. Manufacturing markets are improving, but off of an 8yr low, so it will take some time to get back to 2015-2018 values.

Warehouses is the biggest up story of all. Warehouses are included in the Commercial/Retail sector and represent now about 60% of the Comm/Rtl total $. In 2017-2019 that was only 40%-45%. Warehouse starts were up +25% in 2019, +14% in 2020 and are forecast +24% for 2021. Starts are also forecast up for 2022.

Some data on the Office sector: Starts in 2020 fell 20% from the 2019 high. Total office starts in 2021 are up 4%, but most of that is Data Centers ( up 15%). Office space starts are up less than 2%. In Q1 2021, 46% of all office starts was renovation. Office Vacancy rates reached as high as 16% to 17% in Q1 and Q2 2021, but are now back down to 12%. Pre-pandemic vacancy rate was 9%.

Included in the Office sector, Data Centers is about 15%-20% of the Office total. Starts fell 22% in 2019 and 23% in 2020. Starts are up 17% in 2021, but still 30% below the 2018 high.

Amusement/Rec spending in 2021 could finish down 15%, with new starts up only 3% to 4%, but that’s up from 2020 which was down 35%. Educational spending will be down 8% to 10% and new starts are down to flat.

Nonbuilding Infrastructure construction starts are up 1% in August. Compared to the pre-pandemic high (March 2020), August is up 2%. However, the 2020 average finished higher than the pre-pandemic level and every month since last August has been higher than March 2020. New 2021 Nonbuilding starts avg is 10% higher than March 2020.

The only non-building markets to show growth in 2020 starts were Highway/Street (+9%) and Sewer (+5%). Power posted the largest losses, down 38%. That represents a loss of $45 billion in construction that would have been spread over the next 3 to 5 years. Almost all nonbuilding markets will post gains in 2021. Non-building Infrastructure markets are usually not affected as much in a downturn because public funds are committed to these projects. Power shows most of the losses because it is 95% private work.

Midyear 2021 Economic Forecast Presentation

Nonres Bldgs Recovery to Pre-Pandemic? When?

5-10-21

Economists should be talking about this. While residential starts and spending are at all-time highs, nonresidential buildings starts have been down for months and spending is still declining.

Since Apr 2020 and now through March 2021, Nonresidential Bldgs construction starts, for 12 months, have averaged down 25%+ compared to Q1 2020. Recent Q1 2021 is still down 22% from Q1 2020.

A full year of nonres bldgs starts generates over $400 billion in spending. With starts down 25% for the past 12 months, that’s a loss of over $100 billion in spending that would have occurred over the next 1 to 3 years.

Spending follows as starts move, only later, so spending will fall.

Actual nonresidential buildings construction spending has been down 10 of the last 12 months. Now in Mar 2021 it is at its low point, 9% lower than Q1 2020. The forecast for the remainder of 2021 is down near 1%/month.

A simple model built to show when starts have maximum impact on spending indicates by Dec 2020 Nonres Bldgs construction spending put-in-place would be 10% lower than Q1 2020. Spending was actually 9% below Q1 2020. So the model seems to be on track.

This table sets Feb 2020 starts to a baseline of 10.0. All other starts afterwards are entered at the percentage of actual $ starts that month compared to Feb 2020, so 8.30 in March of 2021 represents starts for Mar 2021 were 83% of Feb 2020. A lost start is negative spending. So, instead of thinking of the peak month of spending, that becomes the month of greatest loss. Those months near the middle of the schedule, are highlighted here.

Dodge is forecasting new construction starts for nonres bldgs will increase ~4% in 2021 and ~10% in 2022. That means starts in 2021 will still be 20% lower than Q1 2020 and starts in 2022 will still be 12% lower. This has major implications.

Even at 10%/yr growth in new starts in 2022, 2023 and 2024, Nonres Bldgs Starts would not return to pre-pandemic level until mid 2024. If starts remain lower than Feb 2020 through 2023, then spending will remain lower than Feb 2020 through 2024.

That model, that’s on track so far, shows maximum impact from reduced 2020 starts will occur in Q2-Q3 2021. But what about 2021 starts? Negative impact continues longer than the # of months starts remain lower than Q1 2020. We now have 12 months of starts still averaging 22% below Q1 2020, so even when we begin to improve, we are measuring from a new base 22% down. For each lower month the greatest negative impact in spending is 10-12 months later. That loss of spending is shown in the following chart for Nonres Bldgs Spending.

By the end of 2021, Nonres Bldgs construction spending put-in-place is forecast to be almost 20% lower than Q1 2020. If the Dodge forecast of 4% growth in starts for 2021 is correct, then, even though 2021 had growth, it’s off the bottom, and 21 months of starts will have averaged down 22% from Q1 2020.

Nonresidential Bldgs construction spending follows as starts go. If starts are down, future spending will be down.

Nonresidential Buildings spending $ put-in-place will not return to pre-pandemic levels before 2024 or 2025.

Pandemic Impact on Construction, Dec. 2020

12-15-20

By far the greatest impact of the pandemic on construction is the massive reduction in new nonresidential construction starts in 2020 that will reduce construction spending and jobs for at least the next two years.

In the Great Recession, beginning in Q4 2008, nonresidential buildings new construction starts fell 5%, then fell 31% in 2009 and 4% in 2010. Spending began to drop by Dec 2008, then dropped steadily for the next 24 months. Spending dropped 40% over that next two years. During that period, residential starts and spending fell 70%.

In 2020, nonresidential buildings starts fell 24%, but the six months from Apr-Sep, starts fell 33%. Starts are forecast to fall 4% in 2021. Nonres Bldgs spending began to decline in Aug, is now down 10% from Feb high and is forecast to drop steadily the next 20 months, for a total decline of 25%. This time around residential starts and spending are increasing.

The measure of decline due to Pandemic delays and shutdowns is not the difference between Q3 vs Q1 growth or spending. Nor is the impact measured by the current difference in ytd performance vs 2019. The measure of decline due to Pandemic delays and shutdowns is the difference between what was forecast for growth pre-pandemic vs actual growth.

New construction starts projected for 2020:

  • Total 2020 Construction Starts now forecast down -11%, pre-pandemic forecast was up 2%
  • Nonresidential buildings now down -22%, pre-pandemic forecast was up 1%
  • Non-building infrastructure now down -15%, pre-pandemic was up 2%
  • Residential new starts now up 1%, pre-pandemic was up 2.5%.

New starts for 2021 were originally forecast up 1.5% to 2% in all sectors. The current 2021 forecast shows residential up 4.5%, nonresidential buildings up 4.6% and non-building infrastructure up 11%. Residential is already at a new high, but nonresidential buildings and non-building infrastructure will still be lower than 2018.

Future impact from delays/cancellations and reduced starts

Total construction starts year-to-date for 10 months through October are now down only -11% from 2019 ytd. Total starts had been down -14% to -15% ytd for the previous four months. Nonresidential buildings starts are down -24% ytd and non-building infrastructure starts are down -14% ytd. Residential starts are now up ytd +2% from 2019.

The most recent four months total residential starts, Jul-Aug-Sep-Oct’20, posted the highest 4mo total since 2005. The next highest 4mo total since 2005 was for the period Nov-Dec’19-Jan-Feb’20. So, the two best 4mo periods of new residential construction starts in the last 15 years have occurred in 2020. In August, residential starts posted an all-time high. Much of the spending from these starts carries into 2021 and supports residential spending growth in 2021.

The following table shows, for each market, the current forecast for new construction starts. With exception of residential, spending in all other markets, due to longer schedules, is most affected by a decline in new starts, not in the year of the start, but in years following. Some effects of reduced starts have not even begun to show up in the data. A 20% decline in new nonresidential starts in 2020 results in a huge decline in spending and jobs in 2021-2022. Residential spending hit bottom in May 2020 and ultimately will post an increase in 2020. Nonresidential Buildings spending will not hit bottom until 2022.

Dodge updated their Outlook to show 2020 construction starts for nonresidential buildings fall on average 20%, less in some markets, but -30% to -40% in a few markets. Only warehouses is up. Non-building starts fall on average 15%. Only Highway/Bridges is up. Residential starts may post an unexpected gain in 2020 and are forecast to climb 4.5% in 2021.

Starts lead to spending, but that spending is spread out over time. An average spending curve for nonresidential buildings is 20:50:30 over three years. Only about 20% of new starts gets spent in the year they started. 50% gets spent in the next year. The effect of new starts does not show up immediately. If new nonresidential buildings starts in 2020 are down 22%, the affect that has on 2020 is reduced spending by -22% x 20% = – 4.4%.  The affect it has on 2021 is -22% x 50% = -11%. In 2022-2023 the affect is -22% x 30% = -6.6%.

Many nonresidential buildings have durations that last 24 to 36 months, with peak spending 12 to 18 months from now. With the 22% drop in new starts this year, that peak spending 12 to 18 months from now will be impacted negatively. Some nonbuilding markets have project durations that go out 5 or 6 years, so the impact of a decline in 2020 starts may be felt at least until 2025.

Starting Backlog

Starting backlog is the estimate to complete (in this analysis taken at Jan 1) for all projects currently under contract. The last time starting backlog decreased was 2011.

Backlog leading into 2020 was at all-time high, up 30% in the last 4 years. Prior to the pandemic, 2020 starting backlog was forecast UP +5.5%. Due to cancelations, that has been retroactively reduced to +2.7%.

Starting backlog pre-pandemic forecast for 2021 was UP +0.3%. Due to fewer new starts in 2020, that has now been reduced to -10.6%. By far, the greatest impact is due to nonresidential buildings for which backlog declined by 17%.

If construction starts in 2020 do not outperform 2020 construction spending, then 2021 starting backlog will be lower than 2020. My current forecast (2020 starts down -10.7%) indicates 2021 starting backlog will be down by -10%. Spending declines into 2021 and remains depressed through 2023.

80% of all nonresidential spending in any given year is from backlog and could be supported by jobs that started last year or 3 to 4 years ago. Residential spending is far more dependent on new starts than backlog. Only about 30% of residential spending comes from backlog and 70% from new starts.

Some of the projects delayed or canceled started before Jan. 2020. When one of those projects is delayed, the portion of the project delayed gets shifted and remains in future backlog longer. When one of those projects is canceled, the portion of the project not yet put-in-place gets removed from 2020 and future backlog. Not only does that reduce future backlog but also that retroactively reduces the backlog that was on record at the start of 2020. Therefore, 2020 backlog is reduced by cancelations and future backlog is increased by delays, but reduced by cancellations and a loss of new construction starts.

Future impact on Backlog from delays/cancellations and reduced starts

Projects in starting backlog could have started last month or last year or several years ago. Many projects in backlog extend out several years in the schedule to support future spending. Current backlog at the start of 2020 would still contribute some spending for the next 6 years until all the projects in backlog are completed.

Total starting backlog will fall -11% for 2021 and -4% for 2022. Due to new starts declining by 22% in 2020, Nonresidential buildings backlog drops -17% for 2021 and drops -7% for 2022. For non-building infrastructure, a drop of 15% in 2020 starts results in a drop of 8.7% in 2021 starting backlog.  

The biggest changes to 2021 starting backlog are Lodging (-42%), Amusement/Recreation (-40%). Manufacturing (-26%) and Power (-20%). 2021 backlog declines in every nonresidential market, except Highway.

Reductions in starts and starting backlog lead to lower spending. Residential construction is going counter to the trend and will post positive results for new starts, backlog and spending for the next two years. Nonresidential buildings will experience the greatest reductions in new starts, backlog and spending through 2022.

The next table shows spending year-to-date (ytd) through October (released 12-1-20) along with spending forecast for the year. 2nd quarter construction spending activity low-point was down only 5.5% from the Feb peak. Construction spending through October ytd is up 4.3% with Residential ytd up almost 10%.

Almost every market has a weaker spending outlook in 2021 than in 2020, because of lower starts in 2020. Although starts are forecast down -15% to -20% in 2020 and then up +5% to +15% in 2021, the drop in starts in 2020 has the greatest impact on reducing spending in 2021. Most of the reduced spending impact from the lost starts is felt in the future, when those lost projects would have been reaching peak activity at the midpoint of construction. Nonresidential buildings starts in 2020, now down 28% the last seven months. Lowpoint of spending from lost 2020 starts is late 2021- early 2022.

Residential spending looks stable heading into 2021, Nonresidential Buildings spending drops -2% to -3% each quarter in 2021. By Q4 2021, nonresidential buildings spending is down 15% from Feb 2020. When looking at Total Construction Spending for 2021, residential growth obscures the huge declines in nonresidential.

YTD spending for Nonresidential Buildings is currently -1.2% and my 2020 forecast shows Nonres Bldgs ending the year down -2.1%. Some forecasters are predicting spending for nonresidential buildings will end the year down much worse compared to 2019. It would now be difficult to move the end-of-year forecast %change by much, with already 10 months recorded at an average of -1.2%. Also, some forecasts for 2021 predict spending for nonresidential buildings will increase. Remember, most of the reduced spending impact from the lost starts is felt when those lost projects would have been reaching peak spending.

Nonresidential Buildings construction will take several years to return to pre-pandemic levels. Although nonresidential buildings spending is forecast down only -2%, the gapping hole left by the 15%-25% drop in 2020 construction starts will mostly be noticed in 2021 spending. Project starts that were canceled, dropping out of new backlog between April and September 2020, would have had midpoints, or peak spending, April to September 2021. Nonbuilding project midpoints could be even later. The impact of reduced new starts in 2020 is reduced spending and jobs in 2021 and 2022.

Construction Jobs are projected to fall in 2021. While 2021 Residential spending will climb about 10%, Nonresidential building spending is forecast to drop -10% and Non-building spending drops -4%.

A recent AGC survey of construction firms asked, how long do you think it will be before you recover back to pre-COVID-19? The survey offered “longer than 6 months” as an answer choice. Less than 6 months was the right answer for residential, but my current forecast for full recovery of nonresidential buildings work is longer than 6 years.

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