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The AIA recently published the Nonresidential Buildings Consensus Forecast Midyear 2017 report. The consensus of seven firms projects spending growth for nonresidential buildings at 3.8% for 2017 and 3.6% for 2018. The largest growth in the AIA forecast for any building type for both years is 10% for 2017 Retail & Other Commercial. The highest reported total annual prediction from any firm is 4.4% for 2017 and 5.5% for 2018. AIA Midyear Consensus Report July 2017
Construction Analytics forecast for nonresidential buildings construction spending growth is +7.3% for 2017 and +10.7% for 2018. Growth in 2016 was 7.5%.
Year-to-date (YTD) spending for the 1st 5 months of 2017 is up +5.2%, led by Office and commercial, both near 15%. Estimate-to-complete (ETC) for the final 7 months is forecast at +8.1%. Total spending for Nonresidential Buildings in 2017 is forecast to increase 7.3% = $438 billion.
If spending were to slow to 3.8% growth for 2017, since YTD growth is already 5.2%, the rate of growth in the final 7 months would need to fall to only 2.4%. However, the predicted cash flow from construction starts shows very strong spending growth in the 2nd half 2017 and into 2018. Nonresidential Buildings construction starts for the last 12 months posted the highest average since 2007-2008. This is helping boost spending.
Outside of recession years, nonresidential buildings construction spending for the year dropped below 4% annual growth only twice in 24 years, since data has been tracked. In fact, right now spending needs to grow at 4.5% just to stay ahead of construction inflation. So any forecast of spending growth below 4.5% actually might suggest that construction is not expanding, but is contracting. All indications are that there are no recessionary effects right now and economic activity does not suggest we are headed for a non-recession low spending for nonresidential building construction. I don’t expect spending to drop to 4% growth for the next three years.
The pattern of nonresidential buildings construction starts for the last 30 months is indicating spending increases in the 2nd half of 2017 and is setting up 2018 for the highest ever starting backlog and record spending. Even if starts crash to zero growth for the remainder of the year, 2017 spending would drop by less than 1% and we still begin 2018 with record backlog.
New Office construction starts for the last 12 months are the best ever recorded, on track to reach a total 50% growth over two years. Retail/Commercial starts have averaged year-over-year (YOY) growth of greater than 10%/year for the last three years. Educational starts averaged YOY growth of 8%/year for the last two years. These three markets comprise 60% of all nonresidential buildings. Healthcare starts have quietly increased to a record high over the last 12 months. Every market except manufacturing will finish 2017 with new starts totals near or at post recession highs. Manufacturing reached record high starts in 2014 and record spending in 2015. All construction starts $ data in this report references Dodge Data & Analytics starts data.
Construction spending for Commercial/Retail, Lodging and Office construction all remain very strong with 2017 total growth near 15%. Educational (+9%) and healthcare (+4%) both show sizable gains after years of little to no growth.
92% of all construction spending in 2017 is already in backlog projects.
A scenario that would have Office spending drop down to 8.9% annual growth from the track it is on today (+15.4% YTD) would require a highly improbable and unprecedented non-recessionary decline in spending in the remaining months of 2017. To grasp the enormity of the decline needed, it would take canceling 8% of all ongoing office projects or new starts for the remainder of the year would need to drop by 50%.
Educational will show an increase in YTD gains in the 3rd quarter because increasing spending in 2017 will be measured against the lowest quarter (3rdqtr) in 2016. Healthcare may not show sizable YTD gains until 4th quarter, for which 2016 reached lowest spending of the year and 2017 will reach highest.
Total nonresidential buildings spending growth accelerates to 10+% in 2018, led by institutional and office spending.
Nearly all nonresidential buildings construction starts in 2016 are still contributing to spending. Since originally posted they have been revised up by 16%. Since most spending from new starts (approximately 50%) occurs in the year following the start, early spending projections based on original posted starts $ may understate 2017 spending.
Nonresidential construction is comprised of two very different sectors, nonresidential buildings and non-building infrastructure. Infrastructure spending is quite erratic, while nonresidential buildings spending, with only slight variation, has been climbing at a strong steady pace for more than 4 years. Some analysts track nonresidential total spending, but these two sectors perform so differently it is important to break them apart to track trends. Buildings spending is up 2% from Q2’16 and up 5% YOY. In the 2nd half 2017 YOY spending is expected to reach 8% over the same months from 2016. Worthy of note is that non-building infrastructure spending, even though down slightly, just experienced two years of record highs. It will hold down the overall nonresidential total performance, but still finish 2017 near record highs.
See this article from February comparing my starting forecast compared to the Jan 2017 AIA Consensus Nonresidential Bldgs 2017 Forecasts Vary
7-6-17 Construction Spending May 2017 – Behind The Headlines
Headline – Construction Spending for May came in flat compared to April, up 4.5% vs May 2016.
In this latest May report, April spending was revised up by 1% and May 2016 was revised up by 3%. The average revision since Jan 2016 is 3%/month. May 2017 will be revised in each of the next two reports and again with the May report issued in July 2018.
Current unadjusted construction spending is always being compared to previous months revised spending and growth is almost always being understated. Spending has been revised UP 45 times in the last 4 years.
In 2016, the 1st report indicated monthly spending declined 8 times from the previous month. After revisions, spending declined only twice from the previous month. Most MSM articles declaring construction spending was a miss are revised away in following months.
Nonresidential Construction Spending Remains Stagnant in May.
I’ve said this before many times, spending predictions are best tracked based on cash flows from all projects that have started. This is not simply tracking total backlog, nor is it tracking new construction starts. New starts (new backlog) represent only 20% to 25% of total spending within the year. Most spending comes from projects that started in previous years.
Big monthly changes in spending come from unusual fluctuations in starts. Very large projects ending (spending ending), compared to new projects starting, would cause a monthly drop in spending. The reverse would cause an increase. If a record volume month of construction projects that started two or three years ago are now reaching completion, and new starts today are experiencing normal growth not at record levels, then spending will most likely decline temporarily. Most monthly construction spending predictions are predetermined months ago.
Also, Nonresidential construction is comprised of two very different sectors, nonresidential buildings and non-building infrastructure. Infrastructure is quite erratic while buildings spending has been climbing at a steady strong rate for several years. Buildings spending is up 2% from Q2’16 and up 6% YOY. In the 2nd half 2017 YOY spending is expected to reach 8%.
Most infrastructure projects that started in 2015 and 2016 are still ongoing so do not effect much change in current monthly spending. It is projects from late 2014/early 2015 that are finishing that are resulting in the largest share of current spending drops. Worthy of note is that non-building infrastructure spending just experienced two years of record highs, so even though spending is down slightly we will still see 2017 finish near record highs.
Construction Companies Continue to Face Labor Shortage Challenges
Construction Spending for the last 24 months increased +13%, but after inflation actual volume during that period increased only +5.5%. Construction output, (jobs x hours worked) for that same period increased +7.6%.
Why is it that jobs output is growing faster than construction volume? Could it be that shortages are localized, not as widespread as thought? Or perhaps it’s that contractors can’t get skilled workers, so they are hiring more workers with less skill? Maybe contractors anticipate growth, so they are hiring more now to prepare for the future? Whatever the case, jobs are growing faster than construction volume and that is not what should be expected in a labor shortage.
Are contractor’s responses to survey questions about filling job positions based on an anticipated need to staff up to meet revenue growth? If so, that is a major miscalculation to determine staffing needs. This is not as far-fetched as you might think. I’ve talked with numerous contractors in the past who were doing this. As I tried to explain in several previous articles, growth in revenue (or construction spending) doesn’t address how much of the growth is due to inflation. Right now, in fact for the last 24 months, the largest portion of spending growth is inflation, not real volume growth.
If you are hiring to match your revenue growth, you are part of the reason jobs are growing faster than volume. INFLATION!
Is there a Residential Construction Spending slowdown? If so, how significant?
YTD Residential Construction spending for the 1st 5 months 2017 is up 12.2% from 1st 5 months 2016. YTD has been above 12% since January.
Average spending for the last three months is up 4.0% from the average in Q4 2016. That’s a ~10% annual rate of growth. Starts cash flows are indicting flat spending for the next few months but then accelerated spending from late Q3 into the end of the year. Current projected spending for 2017 is $523 billion, +10.5% higher than 2016.
May vs April residential construction spending shows a 0.5% decline. However, April has been revised up once and May has not yet been revised. All months are revised twice after the first release of data. The average revision (to residential data) for the last 16 months is up 4%, the average revision for the last 28 months is up 7%. All revisions for the last 28 months were up. After revisions, there were only two monthly declines in the last 28 months, and both of those were slight.
If new starts collapse to show no gains for the remainder of the year, then based on starts already in backlog and reduced starts for the remainder of the year, spending would be reduced to $513 billion. That’s still 8.5% higher than 2016. Of course, this would be an extremely unlikely scenario. The last time residential construction starts declined for three or more consecutive months was 2010, and the last time there were no gains for six or more months was 2008.
5-1-17 Updated construction spending forecast for 2017. Actual spending is included through March data, first release 5-1-17. Forecast spending includes predictions based on Dodge Data & Analytics (DDA) construction starts through March, released 4-21-17.
Reference Construction Economic Outlook 2017 posted January 2017
5-1-17 Update Overview
Construction Spending in March posted a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $1,218 billion, down 0.2% from February. February was revised UP by 2.3%, and March data is still subject to revisions, usually upward, the next two months. January was revised UP 1.6% from the initial release.
The 1st release of spending is always being compared to a previous month and a previous year that have already been revised, almost always up. Upward revisions to monthly construction spending in 2016 have been as high as 3.4% and for the year average 1.1%/mo. In the last 48 months, the 1st report of construction spending was down vs the prior month 20 times. The initial value was subsequently revised UP 47 times. After revisions, only nine months were down compared to the prior month.
Total Construction Spending for Q1’17 is 3.5% higher than I predicted in my initial 2017 forecast posted 1-7-17. Construction spending growth from Q4’16 to Q1’17 gives 2017 the 2nd best quarter to quarter start in 10 years, just shy of 2014 which posted the best spending growth since 2005. Nearly all the greater volume in spending over my original 2017 forecast is in residential construction, which, for the last four months, has posted much stronger new starts and spending than anticipated based on DDA projections.
Year over year total spending:
- Jan17r/Jan16 = 4.7%
- Feb17r/Feb16 = 5.5%
- Mar17/Mar16 = 3.6%
Based on history, it is likely that Mar17 will get revised UP. (note: with the 2nd release of March spending, the Mar17 year-over-year value was revised up from yoy 3.6% to 5.0%. The initial Apr17 yoy value was posted as up 6.7% from Apr16. Year-to-date total through April is up 5.8% over 2016, and that will most likely be revised higher.)
Total construction spending in 2017 is now forecast to finish at $1,263 billion, an 8.5% increase vs 2016, supported by a 4th consecutive year of strong performance in nonresidential buildings and a very strong start in residential spending. The SAAR of spending will range from near $1.2 trillion in January to $1.3 trillion in the 4th quarter.
A significant indicator for 2017 construction spending performance is that 2017 year-to-date (YTD) spending is up 4.9% compared to a very strong 1st quarter 2016. In the 2nd quarter 2016 spending dropped and did not return to the Feb-Mar 2016 level until Sept-Oct 2016. In 2017, although growth will slow (but still remain positive) in the 2nd quarter, by Sept-Oct spending will be 5% higher than March. The six months Apr-Sept 2017 compared to the same period 2016 will show growth of more than 8%.
The SAAR of spending on a “current dollar” basis (before adjusting for inflation) is now at an all-time high, just barely eclipsing the highs of early 2006. By the 4th quarter of 2017 spending will be 5% above the previous 2006 highs on a “current dollar” basis. However, on a “constant dollar” basis (adjusted for inflation) we are still 13%-14% below peak spending, perhaps five more years away from the real inflation adjusted 2006 peak.
The SAAR of Residential construction spending increased 6% in the last 3 months. It is up 5.3% from Q4’16 to Q1’17. March YTD (=Q1 2017 total) is up only 8.5% from Q1 2016, because Q1 2016 was exceptionally strong. I’m forecasting residential construction 2017 growth of 8% to 10%. Residential spending in 2017 is forecast at $512 billion, 10.2% higher than 2016.
Total Nonresidential construction spending is up 2% Q1’17 vs Q4’16 and up 2.5% vs Q1’16. Predicted cash flows indicate a strong growth pattern for 2017. I expect total nonresidential spending to finish the year up 7%. Nonresidential construction is better understood by looking at the parts, buildings and infrastructure.
Construction spending for Nonresidential Buildings in Q1’17 is up 1.6% vs Q4’16 and up 6.6% vs Q1’16. The most recent 3-month average seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is $427 billion, now less than 4% below the previous peak of $444 billion in 2008. By midyear 2017 the SAAR will reach a new all-time high and at year-end it will be near $460 billion.
Nonresidential buildings 2017 starting backlog on January 1, 2017 was 47% higher than at the start of 2014, the beginning of the current growth cycle. Spending within the year has two sources; that generated from new starts within the year and that generated from starting backlog. For nonresidential buildings, spending within the year from starting backlog has increased every year since 2014 and in 2017 it will be 42% higher than 2014.
Nonresidential Buildings spending in 2017 is forecast at $447 billion, 9.0% above 2016. Office spending will lead 2017 with 25%+ growth. Commercial, Lodging and Educational markets are all expected to post strong gains over 10%.
For details on Nonresidential Buildings, See Behind The Headlines – Nonres Bldgs Construction Spending and Nonresidential Bldgs 2017 Forecasts Comparisons
Construction spending for Nonbuilding Infrastructure Q1’17 is up 3.8% vs Q4’16, but down 1.8% vs Q1’16. Nonbuilding infrastructure 2017 growth is expected at about 4%-5%.
Non-building Infrastructure, following two down years, will increase by 4.8% to $305 billion. Infrastructure growth is being led by a very high volume of power generation and pipeline work, up only slightly from Q1’16, but up 10% from Q4’16. Although new infrastructure starts were down in 2016 and are expected to decline again in 2017, the amount of work in backlog at the start of 2017 is the highest its ever been and spending in 2017 is forecast at an all-time high.
For Non-building Infrastructure details see Infrastructure Outlook 2017
Private spending is the highest since Q1 2006. Public spending YTD 2017 vs 2016 is down 7% ONLY because the 1st quarter of 2016 was the highest quarter since 2010, elevated due to highway and bridge spending. Educational and Highway/Bridge, the largest two components, make up almost 60% of public spending. The quarterly average of Public spending has been increasing since Q2’16. By the end of Q2’17 YTD public spending will be up 2.5%.
For all of 2017 Private spending will increase 9%. Public spending could increase 7%, with half the gains coming from educational spending.
Starting Backlog is the Estimate-to-Complete (ETC) value of all projects under contract at the beginning of the period. The sum of all ETC represents current backlog. While continued growth in backlog is most important, the predicted cash flow from backlog and new starts is necessary for predicting future spending.
Revenues from starting backlog account for 75%-80% of all nonresidential construction spending within the year. Not only was nonresidential starting backlog at the highest ever coming into 2017, but also spending from backlog is predicted up by 5% and 2017 new starts are predicted up 8%.
Due to the shorter duration of residential projects, nearly 70% of spending within the year is generated from new starts. Unlike nonresidential, backlog does not contribute nearly as much spending within the current year. If no new work started within the year, within a matter of a few months there would be no backlog ETC left to support the industry.
Construction starts, which generate construction spending (cash flow) over the next several years, were originally reported in 2016 as up only 1% from a remarkably strong 2015. However, Jan-Feb-Mar 2016 starts have recently been revised up by a whopping 16%, and the historical trend is that every monthly value in the previous year for the last eight years has been revised up. This adds to predicted cash flow, so has an immediate affect of raising predicted 2017 spending. 2016 revisions-to-date and expected revisions are on track to raise 2016 starts up to 6% growth over 2015.
Starts that are being reported for the current year are always being compared to a previous year that has been revised up, so starts growth is always understated. So far, starts for the 1st quarter of 2017 have been much stronger than expected. Starts year-to-date are down 1.5% from the upward revised 2016 totals, however the historical revision has been in the range of 3.5% to 5%. So, the actual growth in new starts has been remarkably strong, better than forecast in October, and is adding to the basis for increased forecast in future 2017 and 2018 spending.
This is a summary of the main points on Infrastructure from several recent articles. Those articles detail current market conditions, growth already in backlog and future growth potential. The articles (linked here) are:
- Calls for Infrastructure Problematic
- Infrastructure & Public Construction Spending
- Infrastructure – Ramping Up to Add $1 trillion
- Infrastructure Outlook 2017 – Construction Spending
Non-building Infrastructure spending in 2016 will finish at $290 billion, down 1% from 2015. Negative drivers were Transportation, Sewage/Waste Disposal, Communications and Water Supply. However, Power and Highway/Bridge, 57% of all infrastructure, were both up. Spending based on projected cash flow from Dodge Data Starts predicted this drop.
- In 2017, Non-building Infrastructure, following two slightly down years, will increase by 4.4% to $304 billion, due to growth in the highway and transportation markets.
- Headlines point to a 6% decline in new infrastructure starts in 2017
- Starting backlog for 2017 increased 6% over 2016.
- The cash flow in 2017 from starting backlog will be up 10%.
Infrastructure currently has the highest amount of work in backlog in history. Starting backlog accounts for 80% of all spending within the year. Even with an anticipated decline in new starts in 2017, starting backlog for 2018 will still be at another new high. Spending from starting backlog is predicted to reach record levels in both 2017 and 2018.
- Total Construction spending for 2017 is more than $1.200 trillion.
- Infrastructure, public and private, is $300 billion, only 25% of total construction spending.
- Public is only 60% of all infrastructure, $180 billion, so 15% of total construction.
- Public Nonresidential Institutional Buildings referred to as infrastructure (Educ, HlthCr, Safety) adds another $95 billion, 8% of total construction.
The two largest markets contributing to public spending are highway/bridge (32%) and educational (25%), together accounting for 57% of all public spending. The next largest market, transportation, is only about 10% of public spending.
- Total Construction spending average constant $ growth post-recession is $50 billion/year. It exceeded $75 billion/year only once.
- Infrastructure, only 25% of total construction spending, increased by more than $25 billion in a single year only once. The average annual growth for the past 20 years (excluding recession yrs) is less than $10 billion/year.
- Public Infrastructure annual growth averages only $6 billion/year, has never exceeded $16 billion in a single year.
- Public Institutional Buildings annual growth averages only $6 billion/year, has never reached $20 billion.
Current backlog already accounts for 80% of all spending. Current spending growth from backlog (Public infrastructure + Institutional) is predicted to add $20 billion/year in work over the next two years. This will absorb some current jobs and create 100,000 to 150,000 new heavy engineering and nonresidential jobs.
For every $10 billion a year in added infrastructure spending, that also means adding about 40,000 new construction jobs per year.
Any infrastructure plan added, for the most part, needs to be considered as added on top of the current spending plan, $20bil/yr next two yrs, already at all time highs.
- Average growth in total construction jobs is about 270,000 jobs per year. The largest growth was 400,000 in 1999.
- Average post-recession growth in public infrastructure + institutional jobs is about 35,000 jobs per year. The best growth was 50,000 jobs/year.
Current data predicts public institutional and infrastructure spending and jobs growth, already above the long term average, is expected to increase by $20 billion/year for the next several years.
Adding $20 billion/year more in spending for an infrastructure expansion plan would push total public work to double record levels. It’s doable, but would be difficult to achieve and is probably not sustainable at that rate.
One limiting factor will be jobs growth. Also, the supply chain may not have the capacity to increase so rapidly, especially to think the industry could continue to expand at a historical rate of growth for years to come. In years past, expansion like this has led to rampant inflation within the industry.
Adding $100 billion in a single year to public infrastructure and institutional work is unrealistic. That is greater than the maximum level of growth for the entire construction industry. The portion of the industry we are dealing with here is less than 25% of the entire industry.
Adding $100 billion, a one third increase in annual spending for this sector, would require the distribution network surrounding the industry to expand equally as fast. It would need 300,000 to 400,000 new jobs filled in a year, in a sector that has at maximum grown 50,000 jobs in a year. That’s unrealistic.
The public infrastructure subset of the construction industry appears too small to accommodate an increase of $10 billion/year and 40,000 new jobs/year over current growth. When the potential projects pool is expanded to include public institutional buildings, that total pool may then accommodate an increase of $10 to $15 billion/year over normal growth.
Excessively rapid growth will only take volume and jobs away from normal growth, generally leads to rapid inflation and has a devastating effect when a massive program ends and all those jobs disappear.
Headlines of construction spending declines are almost always premature.
The 1st release of January construction spending came out March 1. This initial release indicates a decline of 1% from December. Keep in mind, all 12 monthly reports in 2016 were subsequently revised up. Eight times in 2016 the 1st report of spending was down vs the previous month. After revisions, only two months were down compared to the previous month.
Monthly construction spending has been revised UP every one of the last 39 consecutive months. Since August 2013, the first report indicated a decline vs. the previous month 17 times. After revisions, there remain only seven real month/month declines in 39 months.
The 1st release of spending is almost always being compared to a previous month and a previous year that have been revised up. Upward revisions to monthly construction spending in 2016 have been as high as 3.4% and for the year average 1.1%/mo.
After spending is first published it is revised in each of the two following months. Then all the values for the entire year are revised when the May data release is issued on July 1 of the following year.
Most changes in monthly spending are predetermined.
Spending that occurs this month is generated from all the projects that are ongoing, some that started many months ago. In fact, some projects may have started three or four years ago. For instance, the largest decline in public spending this month is highway work. Although it has one of the smallest percent changes ( only -3.3% vs -12% to -16% for other markets), it is the largest share of total public spending. A very large amount work, 40% above normal, started in 2013 – early 2014. Some of that work is just now finishing. It could be seen a year ago in the cash flow models that a very large sum of work would be ending sometime in Q4’16 or Q1’17. It often occurs that the largest changes in monthly spending are driven by work ending rather than new work beginning.
Nonresidential buildings has the largest backlog ever.
Both Residential and Non-building Infrastructure will increase in 2017 after brief slowdowns but Nonresidential Buildings will lead construction spending in 2017, accounting for more than half of all 2017 growth. Office and commercial retail and then educational provide the most dollar volume growth in 2017.
Nonresidential buildings 2017 starting backlog is 45% higher than at the start of 2014, the beginning of the current growth cycle. Current year spending from starting backlog has increased every year and in 2017 it will be up 35% over 2014. About 75% to 80% of all nonresidential buildings construction spending in 2017 will be generated by projects that are already underway (in backlog). Only 20% to 25% of all spending in 2017 will come from new projects that start in 2017.
New construction starts in the final three months of 2016, although well below the yearly highs reached in August and September, helped carry 2016 new starts to an eight-year high. Nonresidential Buildings starts for the last six months averaged the highest since the 1st half of 2008.
Jobs growth may look quite slow this year.
Jobs growth over time follows closely to volume growth, not spending growth. Real volume growth is spending minus inflation. I’m predicting 6% spending growth in 2017, but after inflation that represents less than 2% volume growth. Therefore, we may add less than 2% new jobs in 2017, or less than 140,000 new jobs. An imbalance in growth between jobs and volume does sometimes occur. In the last 25 years that annual imbalance, whether up or down, has exceeded 3% only six times. Those six years were all either construction boom years or recessions. For all the other years, the difference in growth between jobs and volume has averaged less than 1%. Whether we look at the last four-year period or the last eight-year period, jobs and volume growth have been within 2%.
New construction starts in 2016 for Office Buildings is setting up a very strong spending growth pattern for the next 2 years.
The five largest metropolitan areas comprise more than one third of total national new starts in commercial-multifamily construction. Total commercial-multifamily starts are up 7%. Commercial starts alone are up 11%. New starts for office projects increased more than 30% in 2016. The following percentages are growth in starts for new Office Buildings. Reference Dodge Data & Analytics New Commercial and Multifamily Construction Starts.
- New York City-Northern NJ-Long Island -2%, but from 2015 that was up 138%
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana +67%
- Chicago-Naperville-Jolliet +22%
- Washington DC-Arlington-Alexandria +87%
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington +31%
Office construction starting backlog for 2017 (projects under contract as of Jan 1, 2017) is the highest in at least 8 years, more than double at the start of 2014 when the current growth cycle of office construction spending began. Also, the share of spending in 2017 from starting backlog is increasing.
Office spending since 2013 has increased every year by an average of more than 20%/year and is expected to continue or exceed that rate of growth in 2017.
Office construction spending reached a new all-time high in September 2016. Growth in office buildings will lead all 2017 commercial construction spending. Spending will be near +30% year over year growth for 2017 with total expected to come in at $91 billion.
Regardless what market fundamentals change for 2017, this work is already under contract and will be the driving force for 2017 nonresidential buildings spending.
See Also these related articles
The following table includes my 2017 growth forecast for construction spending in nonresidential buildings compared to the recently published AIA Consensus Forecast which includes individual forecasts from seven economists.
Construction Analytics (edzarenski.com) forecast is based primarily on scheduled cash flow of construction starts in backlog. About 75% to 80% of all nonresidential buildings construction spending in 2017 will be generated by projects that are already underway. Only 20% to 25% of all spending in 2017 will come from new projects that start in 2017.
See my recent blog post on 2017 Starting Backlog here describes in part how I use backlog starts data to generate future spending forecast.
Nonresidential buildings 2017 starting backlog is 45% higher than at the start of 2014, the beginning of the current growth cycle. Spending in 2017 from that starting backlog has increased every year and it will be up 35% over 2014.
This comment I made two weeks ago in a post on Dodge Data 2016 Construction Starts helps explain in part the level of new starts in 2016 that established the pattern I see going into 2017:
“Nonresidential Building new starts in December remained consistent with October and November. Although well below the yearly highs reached in August and September, the final three months helped carry 2016 totals to an 8-year high. Nonresidential Buildings starts for the last six months averaged the highest since the 1st half of 2008.”
Nonresidential Buildings spending for 2016 totaled $409 billion, UP 8.1% from 2015.
Nonresidential Buildings spending in 2017 is forecast to increase to $447 billion, 9.1% over 2016.
The most recent 3-month average seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is already leading into 2017 starting at $420 billion only 5.5% below the peak in 2008. By midyear 2017 the SAAR will reach a new all-time high.
The widest variances between my forecast and the AIA panel forecasts are in Office, Manufacturing, Educational and Commercial. Here are explanations to support my forecast.
Office project starts at the end of the year increased more than 30% for 2016. Office construction 2017 starting backlog (projects under contract as of Jan 1, 2017) is the highest in at least 8 years, more than double at the start of 2014 when the current growth cycle of office spending began. More importantly, the share of spending from starting backlog is also increasing for 2017. This is setting up a very strong spending growth pattern for the next 2 years.
Manufacturing buildings new starts dropped 33% in 2015 and 38% in 2016. A disproportionately large portion of both 2015 & 2016 spending was generated from starts in 2014. In 2014, starts had jumped 80%+, but now almost all of that work is completed. For 2017, the amount of spending from starting backlog has dropped 25% from the level of 2016. Even an increase of 50% in new 2017 starts would not make up for that loss.
Educational buildings new starts increased 11% in 2016. But more important is that the total value of starting backlog has been increasing for several years. In 2015, the value of starting backlog increased only 5% over 2014. In 2016 it was 9% and in 2017 it is 13%. Even if new educational starts in 2017 decline by 10% to 20%, 2017 spending is being driven higher by the work already in backlog.
Commercial spending increased 11% in 2016. For 2017, spending from starting backlog will increase 10%, and starting backlog is at the highest level since pre-recession. In fact, spending from starting backlog will be 40% higher than 2014. Since starting backlog generates about 75% of spending within the year, most of the growth in 2017 is coming from very strong starting backlog.
Once again,”Simply referencing total backlog does not give a clear indication of spending within the next calendar year. The only way to know how much of total backlog that will get spent in the current year and following years is to prepare an estimated cash flow from start to finish for all the projects that have started in backlog.”
With few exceptions over the last three years, Construction Analytics, Dodge Data & Analytics and ConstructConnect have provided the most accurate forecasts. We’ll see in Feb. 1, 2018 how we all did when the total 2017 spending report gets released.
Stuff you won’t read in the headlines.
- Total Construction spending for the last 3 months is at a 10 year high. However, in constant inflation adjusted dollars, construction spending is still 16% below 10 years ago. Are We at New Peak Construction Spending?
- In the last 36 months, there were 16 Census construction spending releases that initially showed a decline vs the previous month. Five months showed a decline vs the previous year. After revisions every month was revised up from the original posted amount. There remained only 2 significant mo/mo declines. There were no remaining year/year declines. Construction Spending Gets Revised UP
- Nonresidential Bldgs new starts (by Dodge Data) in the 2nd half of 2016 posted the best #s since the pre-recession boom. New Construction Starts 2016
- Nonresidential construction spending within the year is far more dependent on construction starts from previous years than on new starts within the year. Only 20%-25% of all spending within the year comes from new starts within the year. Behind The Headlines – Construction Backlog
- If Nonresidential New Starts for 2017 fall short of projections by 10%, it would reduce total 2017 nonresidential spending by 2.0% to 2.5%.
- 25% of all spending on nonresidential bldgs in 2017 comes from projects that started in 2015.
- 25% of all spending on non-building infrastructure in 2017 comes from projects that started between July 2014 and May 2015. That unusually high period contributes more to 2017 spending than all new infrastructure starts in 2017. Infrastructure Outlook 2017
- Monthly rate of spending for nonresidential bldgs will reach a new all-time current dollar high by midyear 2017. Behind The Headlines – Nonres Bldgs Construction Spending
- In constant inflation adjusted dollars, 2017 nonresidential bldgs spending will still be lower than any year from 1995 to 2009, 16% below the 2000 peak. Behind The Headlines – Nonres Bldgs Construction Spending
- New construction starts in 2016 for Office buildings as compared to 2015 went from -1% year-to-date in July to +30% ytd in September. Good example that we need to be careful because monthly variation sometimes messes up those comparisons. New Construction Starts 2016
Dodge Data New Construction Starts in December fell off the pace of growth we had in the previous few months due entirely to a large drop in Energy Infrastructure starts. Total of all starts for 2016 finished as the highest year since 2005. Un-adjusted 2016 totals are only 1% higher than 2015, but 2015 totals have already been adjusted up, so this is an unequal comparison. Annual adjustments are always UP and average about +4% per year. After 2016 totals get adjusted up we might see 2016 growth of 4% to 5% over 2015.
Residential starts in 2016 posted the best year since 2005-2006. Residential starts bottomed in 2009 and have now posted the 7th consecutive year of growth. New starts show an increase of only 6% for 2016, but that follows several years of growth averaging more than 20%/year. I expect after adjustments 2016 residential starts will be revised to 8% growth. Spending has bounced 90% off the bottom in large part due to 17%/year average growth in 2013-2014-2015. Because both starts and spending growth have been so strong, recent percent growth rates are smaller. Expect only 5% spending growth in 2017.
Nonresidential Building new starts in December remained consistent with October and November. Although well below the yearly highs reached in August and September, the final three months helped carry 2016 totals to an 8-year high. Nonresidential Buildings starts for the last six months averaged the highest since the 1st half of 2008. Total starts as posted are up only 4% from 2015 but nonresidential buildings has been subject to the largest adjustment of all sectors. I expect after adjustment nonresidential buildings will show a 2016 increase of about 8% to 9%.
These six Nonresidential Buildings markets, which make up 80% of all nonresidential buildings spending, posted the following growth in starts leading into 2017: Office +37%, Lodging +40%, Educational +11%, Healthcare +21%, Commercial Retail +11% and Amusement/Recreation +21%. For the last 3 years spending combined growth in these six markets has ranged between 9%/yr and 12%/yr. For 2017, expect spending growth of 14%.
Manufacturing, which has an 18% market share of nonresidential buildings, saw new starts decline by 38% in 2016. However, in 2014 and 2015 this market posted the fastest growth of any market in a decade and posted the two highest years on record. In 2015 spending increased 33% to the highest ever recorded for manufacturing buildings. Spending is down 4% in 2016 and is expected to decline 13% more in 2017, but 2017 will still be the 3rd highest year of spending on record.
Non-building Infrastructure monthly new construction starts in December fell to a 10-year low. However, due to strong performance throughout the year, and even though total starts fell 11% from 2015, total Infrastructure starts for 2016 came in at the second highest year on record. 2015 was up 27% from 2014. So, even though headlines will point to an 11% decline in 2016, due to the distribution of spending from backlog, 2017 will post the largest spending increase in 3 years. I expect after adjustments the 2016 decline will be revised up by 3 points to -8%.
Power and Highway/Bridge/Street make up two thirds of non-building infrastructure spending. Power project starts dropped 33% in 2016, but from the highest annual total of starts on record. In 2015, Power starts increased 150% to an all-time high and Highway/Bridge/Street finished just shy of a 6-year high. In the 1st five months of 2015, a years worth of Power projects started and they are not yet completed. That volume is still contributing to infrastructure spending in 2017. It was not unexpected that starts in these markets would be down for 2016. The amount of monthly spending from projects started in 2014 and 2015 in this sector will contribute to spending for several years to come. Spending in 2017 will be the highest ever in this sector, up 4% from 2016.
Dodge Data published new construction starts for January 2017 on Feb 22. Starts are up 12% from December; +1% in residential, +16% in nonresidential buildings and +44% in non-building infrastructure. December was revised slightly. Among the major changes for this January: electric utility +285%; misc public works +222%; transportation terminals +768% (mostly LaGuardia airport terminal); offices +26%; manufacturing -69%; educational -18%.
A major revision was posted to January 2016 starts. They were revised up in total by 23%, a huge move equal to about 1/3 to 1/2 of what we would normally see for a total annual revision. For the last 4 years the annual revision to new starts has averaged +4%. January 2016 residential starts were revised up 9%, nonresidential buildings up 21% and non-building infrastructure up 49%. Even with that, current January 2017 starts are up 10% from January a year ago.
Prior to the data release on Feb. 22, non-building infrastructure 2016 starts were down 11% from 2015. You will note in my commentary above I predicted that would be revised to show only an 8% decline. After one month it has already been revised to only an 8.6% decline. I now expect after all months of 2016 infrastructure starts are revised 2016 will show only a 6% decline from 2015.
This is my initial forecast for 2017. Census final revisions to Oct., Nov. and Dec. 2016 spending will not be posted until February, March and April. I will then update the 2017 forecast to reflect better input. Then, with the June 1, 2017 release of spending, Census will post revisions to all 2016 spending. The 2016 record will then be updated.
2-1-17 Updated to include Dec 2016 data
Total construction spending in 2017 will reach $1,236 billion supported by a 4th consecutive year of strong growth in nonresidential buildings. The monthly rate of spending will range from near $1.2 trillion in January to $1.3 trillion at year-end.
Nonresidential Buildings spending in 2017 will increase to $447 billion, 9.1% over 2016. The most recent 3-month average seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is $420 billion, only 5.5% below the peak of $444 billion in 2008. By midyear 2017 the SAAR will reach a new all-time high and it will finish the year near a SAAR of $460 billion. Office spending will lead 2017 with 30%+ growth. Commercial, Lodging and Educational markets are all expected to post strong gains over 10%.
For details on Nonresidential Buildings, See Behind The Headlines – Nonres Bldgs Construction Spending and Nonresidential Bldgs 2017 Forecasts Comparisons
Non-building Infrastructure, following two down years, will increase by 4.4% to $304 billion, due to growth in the highway and transportation markets. In the most recent quarter spending began to recover from 2016 lows posted in August and September. 2017 will be a record year for Infrastructure spending supported by spending generated from the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act and potentially the Water Resources Development Act.
For Non-building Infrastructure details see Infrastructure Outlook 2017
Residential will increase only moderately to $485 billion, adding 4.8% over 2016. That follows on three years of substantial growth averaging 17%/year. More than any other sector residential work is more dependent on new starts within the current year to generate spending, approximately two thirds of all spending within the year.
Office building new starts through August were up only 6% year-to-date but starts in September reached the highest in years. The 2016 starts finished at +37% providing the highest amount of work in backlog going back at least 8 years. Lodging starts in 2016 finished up nearly 40%, Healthcare up 20% and Amusement/Recreation up 35%.
Power project starts dropped 30% in 2016 but from the highest amount of starts on record in 2015. In addition, power had very strong starts in late 2014. All of those very strong starts in late 2014 and all of 2015 are still ongoing in backlog and will contribute to positive spending in 2017. Almost half of all the spending in 2017 is generated from projects that started in 2014 and 2015.
See Also 2016 Construction Spending 1-3-17