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Pandemic Impact #12 – Jobs Update

8-7-20

Jobs data released today show construction added 20,000 more jobs in July. After losing almost 1,100,000 jobs in March and April (out of a prior total 7,600,000), we regained 450,000 jobs in May and 160,000 in June. That leaves construction down 440,000 jobs from the February high point.

Jobs are down 6% from Feb to July, but construction spending is down 7% through June and volume (spending adjusted for inflation) is down 9%.

Year-to-date, residential new starts are down 5%, nonresidential buildings down 22% and non-building infrastructure starts are down 14%. In April, I estimated jobs losses based on Dodge April forecast that new construction starts in 2020 would fall by 10-15% (see Pandemic Impact #4). Yesterday Dodge updated that forecast to show 2020 construction starts for nonresidential buildings fall on average 20%, less in some markets, but -30% to -40% in a few. Only warehouses is up. Non-building starts fall on average 15%. Only Highway/Bridges is up. Residential starts may fall only 5%-10%.

That lowers my forecast for 2021 and 2022.

How those lowered starts affect spending is spread out over cash flow curves for the next few years. This has a major affect on jobs later in 2020 and all of 2021 into 2022. For nonresidential buildings, the greatest impact to spending and jobs occurs from 2021 into 2022 when many of those lost starts would have been reaching peak spending.

Although we may get slight jobs growth in the next few months, there is little to no volume growth to support it. Spending is currently down 7% from the Feb high and volume is down 9%. More spending declines are minimal through Q1 2021. Due to the large declines in new construction starts, we will begin to see additional spending and volume declines by spring 2021. Most of the decline will be in nonresidential buildings.

Spend Sector monthly 2015-2022 8-7-20

Revisit Pandemic Impact #8 – Construction Outlook to compare this plot above to the forecast as of June 3 and to the original forecast this year.

Jobs are supported by growth in construction volume, spending minus inflation. We will not see construction volume return to Feb 2020 level at any time in the next three years. This time next year, volume will be 5% lower than today, 14% below peak.

By June of 2021, spending is down 10% from Feb 2020 and volume is down 14%.

Jobs vs Volume 2015-Jul 2021 8-7-20

We are currently down 440,000 construction jobs from the Feb high. We may regain 40,000 to 50,000 more jobs before the end of the year. But the dropping work volume is indicating by this time next year we may then lose another 200,000 jobs and be down 600,000 jobs below the Feb 2020 high. 

 

Pandemic Impact #9 – Spending Revisions & Construction Jobs Reset

updated 7-2-20 to include May spending and June jobs report

6-26-20   April construction spending dropped only 3%, but jobs+hours worked dropped 16%. Even though May showed a partial jobs rebound, jobs during this period are still down much more than spending. If this data is accurate, we dropped about half a million jobs more than then the decline in spending would indicate. If so, it’s time to wake up and accept there has been no labor shortage, but rather there has been a huge excess of nonproductive labor.

We’ve seen in the past that jobs can grow in excess of volume growth, but we’ve never seen a period where jobs show a massive decline without a like decline in spending. If it is true that jobs declined without an equal drop in spending activity, then those jobs were nonproductive.

Is the industry about to reset jobs vs work volume? Or, should we expect revisions to the reported data? With the July 1 release of spending data, all monthly (not seasonally adjusted) spending gets revised back to Jan 2018. We’ll see if Mar-Apr gets revised to show larger spending losses.

This post will be expanded after the July 1 construction spending and jobs releases.

Data on recent Construction Starts for May from June 15 release

Dodge Construction Starts average for Apr+May 2020 compared to Avg Jan-Feb-Mar 2020 — Nonresidential Bldgs -34%, Nonbldg Infra -4%, Residential -27%.

Dodge Construction Starts average for Apr+May 2020 compared to Avg Apr+May 2019 Nonresidential Bldgs -18%, Nonbldg Infra -15%, Residential -3%.

So, while Nonresidential buildings starts were down 34% in Apr+May compared to Q1 2020, that’s down 18% compared to the same months 2019. Residential Apr+May starts are down 27% compared to the avg in Q1 2020, but that’s down only 3% compared to Apr+May 2019.

What impact does that have on the year? if Nonres Bldgs starts are down 34% for 2 months, that reduces starts by 6% (34 x 2/12 = 6) for the year (from the prior trend). If Residential starts are down 27% for 2 months, that reduces starts by 4.5% (27 x 2/12 = 4.5) for the year. The full impact on new construction starts will not be known for many months as owner’s make decisions whether or not to move ahead with new capital investment.

7-1-20  The Census Construction Spending report issued today revises spending back several years. 2015, 2016 and 2017 were all revised up 1% to 1.5%. 2018 was revised up 2% and 2019 up 4.5%.

The 3 month decline in spending for Mar-Apr-May 2020 is now reported at only 6%. There is still some disparity in the spending data (vs jobs) in 2020 that is subject to several more revisions and may not get revised for at least a year.

7-2-20  Jobs report for June covers the period May18-Jun14.  Construction spending released 7-1 covers May. We now have 3 months, Mar-Apr-May of spending and 3 months of jobs for the periods Mar16-Apr12, Apr13-May17 and May18-Jun14.  We now begin to get a picture of jobs losses and shutdowns.

Construction Jobs vs Spending Mar-Apr-May vs Feb

  • The 3-month average decline in Volume was -6%.
  • The 3-month average decline in Jobs+Hours was -11%.

Jobs vs Volume PIP 2001-2020 monthly 7-2-20

Construction Projects that shut down in Mar-Apr-May did not post lost revenues as deep as predicted. Spending was down only -4% from February to April.  In May the decline from February reached -6%. Compared to February, Residential spending for May declined -9.5%, Nonresidential Buildings -5% and Non-building Infrastructure declined only -2%.

The data for Mar-Apr-May 2020 shows that the spending drop from shut down delays was far less than anticipated. More than 90% of all work continued unabated through April and May. The result is fewer reductions thereby increasing spending in 2020 and less delayed work pushed out into 2021, lowering 2021 spending slightly. This shifts the balance of spending and now shows a small spending growth in 2020 and only a slight increase in 2021.

Non-building Infrastructure spending is up 8% year-to-date through May. Nonresidential Buildings is level year-to-date. Residential spending ytd is up 9%.

On April 1, the pre-pandemic forecast for 2020 spending was up 6% over 2019. The revised forecast is now up only 2.9%, based on the spending data for Mar-Apr-May released on 7-1-20. The biggest change contributing to the decrease is in residential work. Non-building Infrastructure work, particularly Power and Highway, continues to support spending the next two years.

Spend Recession 2020 Summary 7-3-20

These markets remained at level spending or posted gains in spending in April and May: Public Safety, Amusement/Recreation, Transportation, Communication, Highway/Street, Public Works. The largest declines in spending were in Residential, Lodging, Healthcare, Power and Manufacturing.

The result of lesser impact from fewer work shut downs in Apr-May is a better overall forecast for 2020 and a reduction of delayed work pushed into 2021. However, the forecast for 2020 may possibly get a bit worse with expected revisions. I was predicting shut downs of 10% to 15% and in some markets 25% and that did not show up in the Census spending report. But the uncertainty of what the fall brings still weighs heavy on any outlook. Still in question is whether some states may yet need to invoke temporary shut downs that were originally expected to occur in Apr-May.

After three months, there are still approximately 400,000 jobs lost without an equivalent decline in spending. Even with some future downward revisions to spending, my thoughts are we could expect many of these jobs lost for good. But this most recent data produced at least some of the correction I expected last month. The plot below of the number of jobs to put-in-place $1 billion of volume spiked downward in April by an unrealistic amount. With the most recent May-June data, spending dropped a bit more and jobs increased. This corrected the downward spike almost back up to where it was.  Spending is still subject to several revisions for a year. Don’t be surprised to see this plot move slightly higher in the near future. A higher value on this plot represents lower productivity. I would expect current conditions to result in lower productivity and eventually that should show up on this plot.

Jobs per 1B Volume PIP 2001-2020 monthly 7-2-20

My forecast updated to 7-2-20 shows spending increasing through the remainder of 2020 with almost all of the change due to restarting work that was shut down. But then as we turn into 2021, spending begins to fall slightly again through mid-year, with the emphasis on change due to loss of spending from a decrease in new starts in 2020. Still unknown, with no way to tell from the data, is how many of the projects that shut down will not restart? Also unknown is the impact of cancellations of starts for new capital investment.

Residential work posted the largest drop in spending so far, down almost 10% in three months. But even with that steep drop, residential spending is still up 9% year-to-date compared to 2019. Residential and Nonresidential Buildings posted large reductions in new starts in April and May. That will have an impact on 2021 spending. Only Non-building infrastructure is forecast to post sizable spending gains in 2020 and 2021.

Starts CF 2015-2022 7-3-20

 

 

 

Construction Spending Forecasts for 2020 Do Not Support Jobs Growth

1-31-20

A current article and several others, based on a sentiment survey, state that there will not be enough construction workers to support growing construction activity next year. I dispute that claim. 

Construction is in demand – but who’s going to do all the work?

I’ve been writing about the disparity in jobs growth exceeding construction activity growth for more than two years. Construction activity has NOT been increasing to support jobs growth.

Spend Sector Constant2017 monthly 2015-2021 1-31-20

2020 Construction Spending Increases, but Volume is Down

Expect Construction Jobs Growth to Slow in 2020

To Support Construction Jobs, We Need Volume

There are other construction forecasts that support my argument. It’s important to point out that my forecast is the HIGHEST for 2020. So, just keep in mind, if you consider any other forecast, the condition gets worse.

Seven of the eight firms that provided a forecast for the AIA Consensus Forecast are lower than Construction Analytics forecast for nonresidential work in 2020. AIA Consensus > marked slowdown for nonresidential building

ConstructConnect’s forecast is lower than my forecast for all sectors ConstructConnect’s Winter 2019-20 Put-In-Place Construction Forecasts

FMI’s forecast is lower for all sectors FMI U.S. Engineering and Construction Outlook: Third Quarter 2019 Report

Overall, Construction Analytics 2020 forecast shows a volume gain of 0.6%. Spending increase 4.6%, but average inflation is 4%. Therefore volume increases only 0.6%. That would support growth of about 50,000 jobs. Residential and Non-building Infrastructure show slight gains in 2020 but Nonresidential buildings volume is in it’s 4th year of decline.

ConstructConnect shows a total spending increase of 1.9% and FMI shows a total spending increase of 1%. Both show a slight gain in volume in at least one sector, but with expected inflation of around 4%, both would indicate an overall decline in volume and a decline in jobs.

Spending needs to increase greater than inflation to realize an increase in volume. If volume does not increase, there is no support to add jobs.

Expect Construction Jobs Growth to Slow in 2020

12-6-19

The construction spending forecast for 2020 indicates 2% growth. But predicted 2020 construction inflation is slightly higher than 4%. So, real construction volume in 2020 decreases by 2%. Jobs should follow volume growth, yet history shows that in non-recessionary periods, even with volume declining, jobs usually continue to increase, but perhaps at a slower rate. 

This plot shows the forecast volume decline in 2020. For the 2020 forecast we already have 80% of all nonresidential spending in backlog. Since new starts account for only 20% of the spending in the year, a 10% drop in new starts from forecast affects only 20% of the spending, so has only a 2% impact on the total. Nonresidential shows flat to moderate gains in 2020.

Residential forecast will be much more dependent on new starts in 2020. About 70% of residential spending within the year comes from new starts within the year, so quick or large changes in new starts has a huge effect on spending for the year. Residential spending is down 10% from early 2018 but residential volume after accounting for inflation is down 15% since that early 2018 peak.

Simply stated, there has not been any volume growth in the last two years to support jobs growth. In constant $, there was no volume growth in any sector in 2018. In 2019 and 2020, only Non-building Infrastructure shows growth, 2%-3%/yr.

This plot shows predicted 2020 jobs growth of 1.5% or just over 100,000 jobs. Since volume is forecast to decline, any jobs growth in 2020 will increase the disparity between jobs and volume growth. The disparity has been increasing since early 2018. It’s a 15% difference right now. Within a year that could be 20%.

Jobs vs Volume 2015-2021 1-4-20

To emphasize the growing difference, look at these two plots, actually, the same plot just modified to account for the 15% bust in 2006.

Jobs vs Volume 1991-2020 2006 deficit 11-19-19

By accounting for the 15% difference in 2006, essentially, resetting the baseline to 2006, it shows all other years up to 2017 were pretty well-balanced growth. With the exception of 2006 and now 2018-2019, for almost every year from 1997 to 2019 jobs grew pretty closely aligned with volume. A big spread occurred in 2006, then growth remained balanced through 2017. The spread now is near the same as it was in 2006.

Jobs vs Volume 1991-2020 2006 deficit reset 11-19-19

 

Construction jobs growth slowed substantially the last two quarters. I  predicted jobs growth would slow because volume growth had already been declining since early 2018 when volume reached a peak of $1,300 billion. Volume is now $1,170 billion, down 10% in 20 months.  After 6 years of jobs increasing at an average 275,000/year, jobs are up only about +150,000 in the last year, but only +48,000 in the last 7 months. The rate of jobs growth is now the slowest in 7 years. I expect this trend to continue.

The plot of jobs growth below shows current growth rate is below an annual rate of 150,000 jobs/year and it is expected to remain there through 2020, potentially dipping as low as 100,000.

Jobs trailing 12mo growth 2013-2020 12-6-19.JPG

I’d be surprised if jobs start to decline, but that certainly could be envisioned and it would help explain away some of the disparity in growth shown on the Jobs/Volume plot up above.

see also Construction Jobs and JOLTS

Advancing Construction Presentation 12-3-19

This short construction economics slide deck was presented at Hanson Wade’s Advancing Construction – Enterprise Risk Management Dec 2019 Miami, FL

Construction Economic Forecast pdf-notes-edz-presentation 12-3-19

To Support Construction Jobs, We Need Volume

11-2-19

12-6-19 plots updated to include Nov jobs and Oct spending.

Construction Spending IS NOT Construction Volume.

I read an analyst report this week that stated construction jobs growth isn’t keeping pace with construction volume growth. The reference appeared to be to construction spending. That fails to apply inflation to convert construction spending to construction volume, so compares apples to oranges. Spending must be adjusted for inflation to get real volume growth. Jobs MUST be compared to volume.

For over two years now, construction volume growth has not supported construction jobs growth we’ve seen. I expected jobs growth to slow down. I’ve been saying this for over a year. This sure looks like it.

For 2018 jobs growth averaged over 300k. Since January 2019 the rate of jobs growth has dropped from 300k to 150k.

Jobs trailing 12mo growth 2013-2019 12-6-19

Current projected new starts data IS NOT supporting construction volume growth for the next 2 yrs. Growth of 3%/yr in non-building infrastructure will be offset by declines in residential buildings and flat nonresidential buildings. Therefore, there is no real volume support for jobs growth.

This plot adjusts construction spending by taking out inflation to get real construction volume growth. Last year of real volume growth was 2016. Yet jobs continue to climb. This can’t continue. The plot above shows it has slowed.

Jobs vs Volume 2015-2020 12-6-19

Construction jobs growth has slowed considerably over last 2Q, as expected. While construction jobs are up about +150k in last year, jobs (through Nov) increased only +48k in the last 7 months. I’m expecting this trend to continue. In fact, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see in the near future some months when construction jobs decline. The fact is, construction volume simply does not support jobs growth.

Total construction volume, spending after accounting for inflation, has been down for 5 of the last 6 quarters. Volume peaked from Q1 2017 to Q1 2018, but the last year of real volume growth was 2016. Volume is flat or down while jobs continue to rise. This can only mean contractors will be at risk of being top-heavy jobs if a downturn comes.

Caution is advised if putting emphasis on construction JOLTS, which has been climbing to new highs. From mid-2006 to mid-2007, JOLTS reached near the then all-time high. But construction volume, starting in mid-2006, was already on the downward slope. Volume peaked in early 2006 and fell 10% by mid-2007. Construction did not begin shedding jobs until late 2006, but mid-2007, job losses were well underway. Within 12 months, more than 500,000 jobs were gone. Within 18 months, construction jobs were down 1.5 million.

Construction spending annual rate will increase by 3% in the next 12 months, but volume in constant $ after inflation will remain flat. In Q42020-Q12021 spending slows to less than inflation, so volume begins a modest decline. Growth of 3%/yr in non-building infrastructure will be offset by declines in residential buildings and flat nonresidential buildings. Jobs will continue to grow and spread the imbalance even more.

The construction jobs slow down has been in the cards for a long time. With all the talk of skilled labor shortages, there’s been little discussion of the unsustainable excess jobs growth. Maybe it’s about time to change the conversation.

Spending Revisions 9-3-19. Nonresidential Increases. Residential Slows.

Census Construction Spending released today revises data back to Jan 2013. 2018 spending was revised up by $13bil or 1% to $1.307 trillion. I expected upward revisions to 2018 residential that did NOT materialize. Almost all revision is to nonresidential.

Sizable upward revisions were posted to nonresidential buildings and non-building infrastructure for 2015, 2016 and 2017. Educational increased by $5.5bil in 2017 and Manufacturing by $4.3bil. Manufacturing also increased in 2015 and 2016. Power increased by 8%-10% in both 2015 and 2016 but decreased by 8% in 2018.

Starts CF 2015-2020 9-10-19

Nonresidential revisions added $15 to $20 billion in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This helps explain what would be excess growth in labor over this period, absorbing about 100,000 jobs.

It is unusual there were no sizable revisions to residential, the first I can ever remember there being no revisions to residential spending totals. It is not uncommon to see $10-$15 billion/year revisions to past years in residential. In this release, there were no annual revisions greater than $1 billion. However, for 2018, renovations was revised down by $4bil and single-family up by the same $4bil. I wouldn’t be surprised if all years 2013-2018 get revised next year. Typical annual revision is about +2.5%.

Biggest 2018 revisions: Commercial +$6bil, +6.6%; Educational +$3.5bil, +3.7%; Amusement/Rec +$1.5bil, +5.3%; Power -$7bil, -7%; Sewage $1.9bil, +8.5%; Water Supply +$1.5bil, +10.8%; Manufacturing +$5.6bil, +8.7%.

Biggest 2017 revisions: Educational +$5bil, +6%; Amusement/Rec +$1.7bil, +6.8%; Manufacturing +$4.3bil, +6.5%. Public Works +$5bil, +13%. 

After revisions, 2018 construction spending growth was up (2.7% to 4.4%) in all sectors but still less than the increase in inflation (4% to 5%), so real market activity declined in all sectors. Average spending for 2018 was up 3.3%, but average construction inflation in 2018 was 4.8%, so real volume decreased by 1.6%.

Real market growth declined in all three major market sectors, Residential, Nonresidential Buildings and Non-building Infrastructure, however, performance varies by market. For example, in the Nonresidential Buildings sector, Educational, Healthcare and Manufacturing markets (almost 50% of the Nonres Bldgs sector) spending increased only 1% or less. With an average Nonres Bldgs Inflation rate of 5.1%, real volume in these three markets declined 4% to 5%. But Lodging, Office and Commercial markets spending increased 8% to 10%. After subtracting 5.1% inflation, real volume in these markets increased 3% to 5%.

For the Nonresidential Buildings sector, spending in 2018 increased by 4.4%, but nonres bldgs average inflation was 5.1% (i.e., Construction Analytics 5.1%, Turner 5.6%, RLB 4.6%, Mortenson 7.4%, PPI Bldgs 4.0% ). On average, nonres bldgs real volume in 2018 declined by 0.7%.

For the Residential Buildings sector, spending in 2018 increased by 2.7%, but res bldgs average inflation was 4.3%. On average, residential bldgs real volume in 2018 declined by 1.6%.

For the Non-building Infrastructure sector, spending in 2018 increased by 2.7%, but non-bldg infra average inflation was 5.6% (i.e., Highway 6.7%. Powerplants 3.2%, Pipelines 2.1%). On average, non-building infrastructure real volume in 2018 declined by 1.6%.

In 5 years from Jan 2011 through Dec 2015, total construction spending increased 40% but after inflation volume increased only 22%. Jobs adjusted for hours worked increased 21%, almost in balance. However, in the following 3 years from Jan 2016 through Dec 2018, spending increased 16%, but after 13% inflation, volume increased only 3%. Jobs adjusted for hours worked increased 12% during that 3-year period. Starting 2011, jobs exceeded work volume. At the end of 2018, the jobs/work volume imbalance was even greater.

Jobs vs Volume 2011-2019 9-5-19

Residential spending 2018 did get some monthly revisions, but the total was NOT revised up and unusual monthly variances were not revised away. This leaves 2018 with four months in which the spending varied from the statistical monthly average by more than 3 Std Dev. There are no other years outside of the 2006-2009 residential recession in which there were ANY monthly variances from statistical average reaching 3 Std Dev. For 60 months 2013-2017 the largest variance was 1.8 Std Dev.

Residential construction spending in 2018 looks more like the 2006-2009 recession than any growth years from 2001 to 2019. After the Feb 2018 high, spending declined in seven of the next ten months, then in 2019 declined in four of the next six months.  

Residential construction spending declined in the last five consecutive quarters. The most recent quarter averaged $510 billion. The post-recession high was reached in Q1 2018 at $575 billion. Q2 2019 is down 10% from Q1 2018. July 2019 is down 12% from the Feb 2018 high.

Residential spending is forecast to increase through the end of 2019 but then is expected to decline in the 1st half 2020. The low by mid 2020 could match the current low of $510 billion. That would result in 7 out of 9 declining quarters.

Census doesn’t show the Renovations line item. Reno = (Total Rsdn minus SF+MF) is where the biggest residential declines occurred in 2018, down -$4bil, -2.3%. Residential Reno is down 13% in 2019 YTD.

 

July 2019 Construction Briefs

7-26-19

Total all construction jobs including supervisory jobs is now only 3% below pre-recession high. However, volume of work adjusted for inflation is still 18% lower than pre-recession high. From the 2006-2007 pre-recession peak until now, non-supervisory jobs have recovered to within 6% of the previous high and supervisory jobs are now 7% higher than pre-recession high. 

Residential Construction jobs are up 78,000 in the past year, ~3% growth in jobs, but residential construction volume in the same period dropped 8%. Considering residential construction spending is down 8% ytd, residential construction inflation is up minimum 2-3%, so volume is down 10%-11%, and residential jobs are up 3%, 2019 will be the worst year for residential productivity declines since the period 2006-2009.

Rider Levett Bucknall national average construction cost inflation is currently up 2.6% for the 1st 6 months 2019, 5.2% annualized. It’s up 5.7% year over year. This is in line with Turner Construction’s quarterly Building Cost Index, also up 2.6% year-to-date, annualized 5.2%, and up 5.5% year over year. These are both nonresidential building final cost inflation indices.

The PPI average Final Cost of 4 Nonresidential Trades for the 1st 6 months is up 2.9%, annualized at 5.8%. The PPI average Final Cost of 5 Nonresidential Buildings for the 1st 6 months is up 2.6%, annualized at 5.2%.

Construction Analytics current nonresidential building cost index for 2019 is 5.0%.

Forecasting construction spending in 2019 up less than 2%, and composite construction inflation of 4.2%, real volume for 2019 will be down about 2.5%.

The share of total residential construction spending on renovations remained fairly stable from 2013 thru 2018 between 34% and 37% at an average rate of 36%, substantially lower than 2009-2012 when it ranged between 42%-48% and averaged 45%. The 2019 share of residential spending on renovations is forecast to reach 40%. Only 50% of all spending is single-family residential. Keep that in mind when referencing residential jobs to housing units.

With the release of data for July 2019 on September 3, 2019, un-adjusted construction spending data will be revised back to January 2013. Expect revisions to 2018 construction spending, in particular, I expect significant revisions to RESIDENTIAL spending in 2018. Residential construction spending in 2018 recorded 5 individual months in which the spending reported by Census varied from the statistical monthly avg by greater than 3 standard deviations. In 19 years, the only time reported spending has ever exceeded 3 standard deviations from the normal statistical monthly average was during the 2006-2009 recession. I expect all of these to be revised away.

Due to the delay in release of construction spending revisions, which would normally have been published July 1st, my midyear construction forecast will be delayed. There’s more to it than just updating 2018 spending. The spending data helps prove the new starts data, which then supports the forecast. Preparation of the midyear forecast begins after the release of the data update September 3rd.

What’s Happening In Construction Starts? YTD total is down 8% from 2018, BUT

These markets recently posted the best construction starts 12 month totals ever over the noted period. Much of the spending from these starts occurs in 2020.

  • Manufacturing from Jun18>May19
  • Office May18>Apr19
  • Educational Jun18>May19
  • Public Works May18>Apr19

These very long duration markets posted best new starts ever; Highway Dec 17>Nov18, up 25% compared to the prior 12 months which was the the 2nd best 12mo ever, with peak spending from those starts expected in 2020, and Transportation (2yrs) Jan17>Dec18, up 25% from the prior 2 years, but with the peak 12 months up 35% from the prior 2 years, with peak spending 2020.

2020 Starting Backlog for these six markets will be up an average of 25%, at the highest starting backlog ever for each of the six markets.

Non-building Infrastructure construction starts increased 46% over the last 5 years (since lowpoint Q2 2014). Non-building Infrastructure spending increased 7% in 2018 and is forecast to increase 13%/yr for both 2019 and 2020. Big increases in Highway, Transportation and Public Works.

The markets dragging on construction spending are Commercial/Retail, Power and Residential. My forecast shows Commercial Retail declining from now through 2020, but hidden in that is the fact that Stores are down but Warehouses are up; Power which slows to finish flat next year; Residential construction starts peaked in Q1 2018. Year-to-date 2019 starts are down 9% from 2018. Although YTD spending is down 8%, we will see some improvement in the 2nd half 2019. Residential spending should finish down 5% in 2019 and shows very little improvement in 2020.

Spend Sector 2015-2019 8-5-19

Keep in mind the affect if inflation. If spending in a particular market drops 5% AND there is 5% inflation, the real market volume is down 10%. All nonresidential inflation indices are currently between 4% and 5% and are expected to remain near 4% in 2020. Residential inflation is currently near 3.5%.

Construction volume (spending inflation adjusted) hit a 3-year low in Nov-Dec-Jan. Annual volume since Dec 2015 increased 8% but then dropped 7%. Volume for the last 2 years increased less than 1%. Most of the decline to the low was residential. Nonresidential buildings and Non-building Infrastructure were flat.  All three sectors are expected to improve slightly in the 2nd half 2019, although real residential volume will still be down 9% in 2019 and 2% in 2020. Nonresidential Buildings and Non-building Infrastructure will post 6% and 9% increases in volume for 2020.

Construction Markets 2019 YTD Volume +/-   (Volume = Spending – Inflation)

  • TOTAL ALL -5%
  • Residential -12%
  • Manufacturing +5%
  • Office +4%
  • Lodging +3%
  • Amusement/Rec +4%
  • Public Safety +4%
  • Highway +8%
  • Transportation +3%
  • Public Works +12%
  • Commercial -13%
  • Educational -3%
  • Healthcare -5%
  • Power -4%
  • Communication -13%

ALSO SEE

May Construction Spending Report -Changes Since Dec 2019 Forecast

Notes on April 2019 Construction Spending Report

Construction Jobs and JOLTS

6-16-19

8-15-19 edits – added plots

In early 2007, residential construction volume had already dropped 20% and total construction volume was down 10%, (the annual averages would not show this dramatic drop but a monthly plot would), yet construction job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) was peaking at a 6 year high. From Jan 2007 to Jan 2008, construction had already lost 250,000 jobs. All of that was in residential construction. At the time, nonresidential construction was still growing.

Nonresidential buildings volume would peak in late 2008 and non-building infrastructure peaked in early 2009. By that time, in Q1 2009, residential volume was down 60%. Even though nonresidential construction was peaking, total construction was down 25%.

In 2008 construction jobs declined by another 500,000, about 90% residential jobs. JOLTS dropped to half of the 2007 peak high. It was over the next year or so that all construction began to decline, jobs would drop in all sectors and JOLTS would plummet to an all-time low.

The point is this: The construction recession began with the decline of residential construction in 2006-2007, at a time when JOLTS was at a 6-year high. Jobs declines lagged the decline in real construction volume (the annual average plot shows this well).

Jobs vs Volume 2001- 2010 6-16-19

It is remarkable how residential construction volume from the Q1 2006 peak to Q1 2007 had dropped 20% but residential jobs increased by 6%. JOLTS was peaking at a 6 year high. Although total construction jobs increased in 2006, jobs started to decline in the 2nd half 2006 and would drop 200,000 in 2007. JOLTS continued to show job openings increasing from mid-2006 to mid-2007. Neither jobs growth nor JOLTS reflected what was occurring in real construction volume and certainly did not give any leading indication of what was on the horizon.

The AGC survey of contractors has been reporting difficulty hiring construction labor every year since 2012. Yet from May 2012 through May 2019, construction added 1,870,000 jobs, an increase of 33%, the 2nd strongest jobs growth period ever recorded, not far behind 1993-99 when jobs and volume grew equally (JOLTS was not tracked before 2000). In the four years 2003-2006, just prior to the great recession we added 1 million jobs and volume growth kept up with jobs for the first three years, but then the residential recession started and volume began to plunge. However, JOLTS increased from 2003-2007. These three periods mark the best periods of jobs growth in the last 30 years.

During the last seven years, unlike 1993-99 or 2003-05, when jobs and volume grew equally, construction volume (spending minus inflation) increased by only 22%, far less than the 33% jobs growth. While contractors continue to report difficulty filling jobs, the pace of jobs growth is near an all-time high and is out-pacing the growth in volume of work to support those jobs. JOLTS increased every year during this period.

Now fast forward to 2019. Construction spending growth for the previous two years, 2017 + 2018, increased 4.5% + 5.0%. But inflation during this period was 4.4% + 4.8%. Real construction volume for the last two years increased less than 1%. But jobs increased by nearly 8% and JOLTS more than doubled from 2016 to the end of 2018.

This is a real head-scratcher. Volume has not increased for two years, yet jobs are up 8% and the indicator for job openings is increasing. This is not at all what the data should be showing.

In fact, from the 2006-2007 pre-recession peak until now, non-supervisory jobs have recovered to within 7% of the previous high, but construction volume is still 18% below the previous peak. Total all construction jobs is only 3% lower than the pre-recession high.

Jobs vs Volume 2011- Dec2018 7-9-19 fixed15

Just as the data showed in 2007, the data at the start of 2019 shows that we are top-heavy construction jobs that are not supported by real growth in construction volume.

8-3-19 > added plot > Plot below shows the same data as the above two plots, only plotted monthly, with all data from 2001 thru 2019 on one plot. From 1991 to 2000, jobs vs volume disparity was only 1%. This plot sets Jan 2001 to zero baseline for both jobs and volume. By Dec 2006 the disparity was 20%. This plot shows construction jobs growth vs volume growth now has a wider disparity than Jan 2007 when we were leading into the Great Recession. By far, the largest portion of this growing disparity is residential. In the last 24 months residential volume has decreased by 12% but residential jobs have increased by 7%. To be fair, that doesn’t include some nonresidential jobs that were actually doing residential work.

Jobs vs Volume 2001-Jun2019 8-2-19

Construction volume, (spending inflation adjusted to constant $ volume) hit a 3-year low in Dec-Jan.

8-3-19 > added 12 month trailing jobs plot. Jobs growth rate, although showing some minor up months, has been declining since Q3 2018. As of July 2019, the 12 month trailing total of new construction jobs has dropped almost 50% in 9 months. If we maintain the current rate of jobs growth (avg 15k/mo in 2019), within the next three months we will hit a six-year low. I’m expecting growth to slow, so we may hit that six-year low next month, in the August data.

Jobs trailing 12mo growth 2013-2019 8-2-19
With construction spending in 2019 predicted up only 2%, and forecasting 4.5% construction inflation for 2019, real volume for 2019 will be down 2.5%. Jobs thru April are already up 1.2% year-to-date. So the gap is widening.

We are in the third year of no increase in construction volume. But jobs have continued to grow and JOLTS is at an all-time high. These data sets should not occur at the same time. But this is exactly what occurred prior to the great recession after which we experienced a devastating drop in jobs. However, compared to the construction volume measured by inflation adjusted spending, both the changes in jobs and the JOLTS indicator of job openings seemed to lag real activity by about a year.

Even if we do not experience a construction recession similar to 2008-2011, the current situation may be signaling that we could experience a jobs correction with the slightest downturn. If a jobs correction does not materialize then we are headed for a period in which we will solidify the highest ratio of jobs per volume of work put-in-place as measured in the last 50 years.

Jobs per billion 1970-2018 6-16-19

See also these articles:

Construction Volume vs Jobs 2017-2018

Construction JOLTS – What’s wrong with this picture?

What Jobs Shortage?

A Harder Pill To Swallow!

Residential Construction Jobs Shortages

Notes on April 2019 Construction Spending Report

6-3-19

Construction Spending for April came in at $1.299 trillion. Current spending has been stable for the last three months but at a level 1% to 2% lower than this time last year. That should change to positive growth as the year goes on because the 2nd half of 2018 was declining while the 2nd half of 2019 should increase.

Residential spending YTD is down 8%

Nonresidential Buildings spending ytd increased 3.5%

Non-building Infrastructure spending ytd is up 6%

 

Spending-Inflation-Jobs

In 2017 construction spending increased 4.5%, but inflation was 4.4%. Real construction volume increased only 0.1%.  In 2017, construction jobs increased 3.4%.

In 2018 with 4.8% inflation and only 5% spending growth, real construction volume increased only 0.2%.  In 2018, jobs increased 4%.

Considering 4.5% construction inflation for 2019 with spending predicted up only 2%, real volume will be down 2.5% from last year. Jobs thru April are up 1.2%.

Revenue growth looks like 5%/year but it’s all or nearly all inflation. We’ve grown top heavy jobs by 10% in less than three years.

Now well into the third year of jobs growth exceeding growth in work volume, unsupported jobs growth will eventually lead to downward correction in construction jobs. Maybe in 2019.

6-7-19 BLS released Construction Jobs for May, up 4,000. But March and April were both revised down by a total of 13,000. Only 26,000 jobs have been added in the last 4 months. That’s the slowest jobs growth for any four months since 2012. In 2018 jobs increased by an average 26,000/month.

From Jan 2017 to April 2019, jobs growth exceeded construction volume by 10%. The last four months is the slowest 4mo in seven years.

Is this the beginning of a jobs slowdown? Are greater job losses on horizon? The last two years look remarkably similar to 2005-2007 when jobs were still increasing rapidly but already residential construction was well into a downturn.

 

Residential construction spending saar for April 2019 = $506bil. April 2018 was $570bil. Down 9%. Monthly spending is down 10 of last 12 months. Current $ spending is indicating a 3% drop for 2019. After inflation, that would indicate an 8% drop in real 2019 residential volume.

Residential spending for Q1 2019 is 11% below Q2 2018. The decline is about half in single family and half in renovations. Multi-family spending is up 8% ytd (but accounts for only 12%-13% of all residential spending). Total spending for the first four months of 2019 is the lowest residential spending saar for any 4mo in more than two years.

I’ve posted reasons why I expect upward revisions to residential spending, but I question if revisions can offset the current decline from 2018. With a deficit near 10%, it now looks like residential construction spending will NOT post any gains in 2019 and could finish the 2nd consecutive year of zero growth or real volume decline.

In real volume, after adjusting for inflation, residential construction through April is down 13% year over year. We haven’t posted a volume decline like that since 2009. Perhaps revisions will recover half that decline, but not all. Contrary to the decline in real volume, in the last year residential construction jobs are UP 3.5%.

 

Educational spending will finish 2019 much stronger than current spending but the yearly totals will only make slight gains over 2018. There was an uneven distribution of spending curve peaks contributing less in the 2nd half of 2018 that is now behind us. 2019 spending is supported by a steady stream of strong starts that began in late 2017 and extended into summer 2018. Jun-Jul-Aug 2018 starts posted the best 3mo total starts ever and peak spending from those starts occurs from April 2019 to Jan 2020. I’m predicting 3% growth in 2019 and 9% in 2020. Some of the expected stronger spending in 2020 could move into 2019. Current spending is up 6.6% ytd over 2018. Most spending in 2020 comes from projects that start in the 1st half of 2019. So far in 2019 starts are up 15% ytd over 2018.

Commercial spending is currently down 4.5% ytd. It will move slightly lower before it improves, finishing the year down 2%. Both store and warehouse starts dropped in 2018. 2020 may not get more than a 2% gain in spending. Commercial starts are seeing strong gains from distribution centers (warehouses, which are in commercial spending). Since 2015 the 10% decline in retail stores is being hidden by the 50% increase in warehouses, which are at an all-time high. Stores are down 10% from the peak in 2016. Warehouses are down 5% in 2018 but increased 500% from 2010 to 2017.

Manufacturing spending, up 10% year-to-date, currently appears stronger than it is expected to finish the year. Backlog is still very strong, but a drop in peak spending from the schedule of cash flows will lead to a period of moderate spending declines from March through September. After that, manufacturing spending increases steadily through the end of 2020. Initial forecast was for 2% growth in 2019. Current expectations are that manufacturing will finish the year up 6%. 2020 will be an extremely strong growth year, spending potentially increasing 20%+.

Office spending, currently up 9% ytd, similar to manufacturing, could post several months of moderate declines from June to November, but then rebound with a steady stream of increases through 2020. In fact, my forecast shows office spending will remain flat or post a slight declines in 6 out of the next 7 months and finishes the year near the same monthly rate of spending as we are at now. Office spending is expected to finish 2019 up 6% or less. Initial forecast was up 6% for 2019. New starts in 2018 were up 11% to a new high, but much of the peak spending, from over-sized long-duration projects, will benefit 2020 when I expect to see spending growth of 7%.

Healthcare starts dropped back a bit in 2018, finishing 9% down. This slowed spending to remain flat for 2018 and 2019. Spending ytd is up only 1% from 2018. Backlog increased 11% for 2017 and 8% for 2018, but with the slowdown in new starts in 2018, 2019 backlog will be down slightly. New starts need to increase in 2019 to see growth in 2020 starting backlog.

Healthcare construction spending for 2018 is forecast to finish at $42 billion, an increase of only 0.2% over 2017. Considering the recent range between 3.5%-5% inflation, healthcare real volume has declined every year since 2012 with exception of 2017 which gained only 0.3%. It will decline again in 2019 with a forecast 0.6% gain in spending, but with a 4.5% rate of inflation. Dependent on how starts materialize in 2019, 2020 could realize the 1st big spending and real volume increase in 8 years. 

Transportation starts have two main parts, Terminals and Rail. Some analysts include transportation in nonresidential buildings. That does not consider the following: airports include not only land-side terminals but also air-side runway work; rail includes platforms and all railway right of way work, which includes massive civil engineering structures. About half of all transportation spending is rail work. Construction Analytics follows U S Census construction spending reports which include all terminals and rail in Transportation.

Terminals and rail starts reached record highs in 2017 and record backlog in 2019. 2019 starting backlog is four times what it was in 2015.

However, much of that backlog is very long duration project spending that will occur in future years. Some of the project starts in 2016 and 2017 have an eight-year duration. From Oct’16 through Oct’18 there were sixteen $billion+ new project starts and seven $500million+ new starts. Some projects started in this period have peak spending occurring in 2020 and 2021.

Transportation spending is up 8% ytd but could post several slow months in mid-2019. Spending in 2018 is forecast to finish up more than 19%. Spending for 2019 is expected to finish up only 4% but then increase at least into mid-2021.  2020 and 2021 could see increases in spending of 15% to 20%/year.

Highway/Street/Bridge starts hit an all-time high in 2018. Current 2019 progress shows new starts leveling off. Starting backlog increased 50% in the last 4 years leading into 2019. A lot of this is long duration backlog that will provide for large increases in spending in from 2019 to 2021.

Highway construction spending ytd is up 17%. Spending is forecast to increase 16% in 2019 and 10% in 2020. 2021 may see an increase of 10% in spending.

Environmental Public Works (Sewage, Water supply and Conservation) new starts all declined from 2014 through 2017. Then all showed gains in 2018 and the forecast is more gains in 2019. All these projects are public spending and saw no real gains in spending from 2010 through 2017. Spending ytd 2019 is up 16% to 20% for this group. I’m predicting 2019 spending will finish up 22% and 2020 spending is now forecast to increase 17%.

 

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