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The attached plot shows actual and predicted construction spending compared to several industry leading indicators. The ABI, produced by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) shows work on the boards at architectural firms. Values above 50 indicate work increasing, values below 50 = work decreasing. The DMI is a survey from Dodge that gives an indication of new construction momentum. Starts is the total cash flow growth from all nonresidential starts currently in backlog.
Both the ABI and the DMI have long lead times. For example, the ABI value posted by AIA today is an indication of what to expect 9 months from now. I’ve plotted the values for ABI and DMI out at the lead time dates (# of months) in the future so they would correspond to future cash flows from all starts and predicted spending. The Starts, DMI and Spending values on this plot are indexed so they could be plotted with the ABI while keeping growth trends in each index true.
- ABI – Architectural Billings Index
- DMI – Dodge Momentum Index
- Starts – Aggregate Cashflows of Dodge Starts
- Spending – Actual and Predicted Construction Spending
Overall Spending mostly correlates with Starts except that Starts showed a steeper growth rate in 2016 before a drop. Starts and Spending match well for all of 2014 and 2015. Both DMI and ABI are more erratic, however, the advances and declines in the ABI do correspond well with pickups and slowdowns in Spending. From mid-2015 through the end of 2016, the DMI was in a narrow range and that could possibly be said to be in synch with a slowed period of Spending.
Although they don’t match exactly by month, the ABI, DMI and Starts all show a drop sometime between 4th qtr 2016 and 2nd qtr 2017. That appears in Spending as a slight dip in 1st qtr 2017. The ABI gives an indication of a nice increase midyear. Both DMI and Starts are indicating substantial growth in spending by year end 2017.