Construction Spending is now in for Jan, Feb and Mar. Spending is up 0.3% year-to-date (YTD) from 2025, but still 0.1% below the annual average 2025. The revised forecast for 2026 total construction spending is $2.225 trillion, expected to finish up 2.5% from 2025.

Forecast spending has increased slightly, almost entirely due to a March increase 3% above forecast for Single Family Residential. Residential renovations also added a sizable increase in March. Overall residential spending YTD thru March is 0.8% above Jan-Mar 2025, but it is still 1.6% below the annual average in 2025. The 2nd half of 2025 was much stronger than the 1st half, raising the 2025 average. Residential spending in 2026 is stronger midyear and is forecast to finish up 2.1% from 2025. However, after inflation, that is still a decline of 2%.

Nonresidential Bldgs spending is down 3.1% YTD from 2025 and down 3.4% from the annual average 2025. But spending improves throughout 2026 and is expected to wipe away any deficit and finish 2026 just equal to 2025. Keep in mind, with 4% inflation, that means real nonres bldgs construction volume declines in 2026, for the 2nd consecutive year. In fact, real nonres bldgs volume is currently down 10% from 2024.

Non-building Infrastructure spending is currently up 5% YTD and is forecast to finish 2026 up 7% from 2025. Strong gains in Power and Highway carry infrastructure to a positive forecast.

Notice in the table below, I carry inflation at about 4% in 2026. Actual inflation values are all final cost and are a composite of eight different sources, so the inflation carried in these reports will never be the highest or lowest. Predicted inflation reverts to historical averages with some influence of current conditions. Taking 4% out of all the spending numbers above gives the Constant$ results or actual volume of business conducted. For 2025 business volume declined 4.6%. For 2026 it’s expected to decline about 1.7%. Only Non-bldg Infrastructure has posted real volume of business gains in 2025 and 2026.

More to come. Jobs data gets released May 8.