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Construction Spending Projected 2015 Totals

Here’s a comparison of projections for total construction spending in 2015.

Spending Predictions TOTALS Nov2-15

My numbers (GBCo) include the latest actual construction spending data released Nov. 2nd for September spending.  This updated projection also includes revised future spending based on Dodge Data & Analytics construction starts released at the DDA Outlook 2016 conference Oct. 30th.  My prediction for total spending in 2015, now at $1.075 trillion, hasn’t changed much (up 0.7%) since August.  However, for next year my projection has increased from $1.150 to now expecting total spending of $1.190 trillion in 2016.  The 2016 projection will be further refined in my year-end report.

With the September spending values in the data, the statistical average predicted spending for 2015 is $1.073 trillion. My cash flow analysis by sector predicts 2015 will finish at $1.075 trillion. In 11 out of 14 years, the actual final value has been within 0.5% of the predicted.

The statistical analysis gives a predicted range for total 2015 annual spending between $1.066 trillion and $1.086 trillion. The actual spending total has not fallen outside the statistical range since 2001, as far back as I’ve been tracking the data.

Here’s a summary of predictions for several of the major markets.  Again, my predictions from earlier in the year haven’t changed too much.

Spending Predictions MARKETS Nov2-15

In today’s data release from U.S. Census, spending for manufacturing buildings was lowered in both July and August, and September came in lower than I expected.  That is the primary mover in the lower prediction for nonresidential buildings. Spending for manufacturing buildings is at an all-time high. Through September, spending on new manufacturing buildings has already reached an all-time annual high.  Manufacturing buildings helped 2015 spending for nonresidential buildings reach 19% growth but this won’t continue and I expect 2016 growth of 10%.

Residential spending has been a nice surprise to the upside.  The current rate of growth for the last 12 months  is 17%/year and this rate of growth is expected to continue again in 2016.

Spending Predictions TOTALS GRAPH Nov2-15


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