U. S. Census posted November construction spending 0.9% higher than October and 4.1% higher than November 2015. Year-to-date spending through November is 4.4% higher than 2015.
With only one month to go, 2016 is predicted to finish at $1,166 billion, up 4.8% from 2015. December spending is projected to come in at an annual rate near $1,200 billion. At this point, in order for total 2016 spending to drop below $1,160 billion, December would need to fall 6% below November, a magnitude of change that simply does not occur from month to month.
Current monthly spending is at a 10 year high and on a current dollar basis (before adjusting for inflation) is exceeded in all historical spending by only 5 months at the peak spending in early 2006. By the 2nd quarter of 2017 spending will reach all-time highs on a current dollar basis. On a constant dollar basis adjusted for inflation we are still several years below peak spending.
Revised spending for September is 1.25% higher than original posted on 11-1-16 and for October is -0.1% lower than original posted 12-1-16. However, October data is still pending revision again on 2-1-17 and is expected to increase. In the last 3 years every month has been revised up from the original amount posted. 2016 monthly revisions year-to-date average +1.3%.
The table included here shows the predicted total 2016 spending compared to 1st 2016 estimates and current 2016 estimates provided from my data = CA (Construction Analytics) and from CMD (ConstructConnect) and FMI.