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2016 Construction Spending 1-3-17

1-3-17

U. S. Census posted November construction spending 0.9% higher than October and 4.1% higher than November 2015. Year-to-date spending through November is 4.4% higher than 2015.

With only one month to go, 2016 is predicted to finish at $1,166 billion, up 4.8% from 2015. December spending is projected to come in at an annual rate near $1,200 billion. At this point, in order for total 2016 spending to drop below $1,160 billion, December would need to fall 6% below November, a magnitude of change that simply does not occur from month to month.

Current monthly spending is at a 10 year high and on a current dollar basis (before adjusting for inflation) is exceeded in all historical spending by only 5 months at the peak spending in early 2006. By the 2nd quarter of 2017 spending will reach all-time highs on a current dollar basis. On a constant dollar basis adjusted for inflation we are still several years below peak spending.

For inflation adjusted spending see “Are We at New Peak Construction Spending”

Revised spending for September is 1.25% higher than original posted on 11-1-16 and for October is -0.1% lower than original posted 12-1-16. However, October data is still pending revision again on 2-1-17 and is expected to increase. In the last 3 years every month has been revised up from the original amount posted. 2016 monthly revisions year-to-date average +1.3%.

The table included here shows the predicted total 2016 spending compared to 1st 2016 estimates and current 2016 estimates provided from my data = CA (Construction Analytics) and from CMD (ConstructConnect) and FMI.

spend-compare-1st-and-last-2016-1-3-17


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