April construction spending 1st release was issued on 6-1-17 by U. S. Census. The initial release shows April DOWN 1.4% from March, a value many news sources have reported as “construction spending is slowing”, “one of the largest drops in six years”, “an unexpected slump”, “spending continued to demonstrate substantial weakness.” I’ve written about this numerous times but it’s worth repeating again. Construction spending almost always gets revised UP in the following month after 1st release. Average revision so far in 2017 is +1.8% and for the last 18 months +1.3%. Monthly construction spending has now been revised UP every one of the last 43 consecutive months.
Headlines of construction spending declines are almost always premature.
Construction spending is almost always a miss when first posted, until it gets revised up in the following monthly report to show is it almost never a miss.
The 1st release of March construction spending came out May 1. This initial release indicates a decline of 0.2% from February. Keep in mind, all 12 monthly reports in 2016 were subsequently revised up. Nine times in the previous 14 months, the 1st report of spending was down vs the prior month. After revisions, only three months were down compared to the prior month.
In the last 48 months, the 1st report of spending was down vs the prior month 20 times. 47 times the initial value was revised UP. After revisions, only nine months were down compared to the prior month.
Monthly construction spending has been revised UP every one of the last 42 consecutive months.
The 1st release of spending is almost always being compared to a previous month and a previous year that have been revised up. Upward revisions to monthly construction spending in 2016 have been as high as 3.4% and for the year average 1.1%/mo. So, a 0.2% mo/mo decline s probably not a decline at all after revision, and there will be a revision, most likely UP.
After spending is first published it is revised in each of the two following months. Then all the values for the entire year are revised with the May data release the following year.
Some specific markets construction spending revised after 1st release (2016 data). These markets represent almost 50% of nonresidential data.
- Office revised UP 8 of 12 months (average of all 12 +1.1%)
- Commercial UP 9 of 12 avg 1.8%
- Educational UP 10 of 12 avg 1.8%
- Power UP 12 of 12 avg 3.6%