Compare Construction Analytics current construction spending forecast to the most recent forecasts by FMI and ConstructConnect.
Construction Analytics (CA) and ConstructConnect (CCon) forecasts include year-to-date spending. FMI report is titled 2021 2nd quarter edition, but also states based on 4th quarter 2020 actuals.
Both FMI and CCon forecasts have not yet been updated to include 2019 and 2020 revisions released on 7-1-21.
Construction Analytics forecast includes 2019 and 2020 revisions and includes May ytd spending.
Spending Total Put-in-place Forecasts for 2021 range from $1,422 billion (FMI) to $1,574 billion (CCon). Construction Analytics (CA) forecast is $1,526 billion. This is quite a wide spread. Here’s a few of the major differences:
Residential CA = $741 bil, FMI = $627 bil, CCon = $728 bil
Educational CA = $99 bil, FMI = $103 bil, CCon = $108 bil
Healthcare CA = $48 bil, FMI = $49 bil, CCon = $53 bil
Power CA = $110 bil, FMI = $120 bil, CCon = $137 bil
Transportation CA = $56 bil, FMI = $54 bil, CCon = $65 bil
The FMI forecast for residential appears to not yet have been updated to reflect record spending from October through May. I’d expect that will soon be updated. Residential spending year-to-date (ytd) is up 23% and has averaged a seasonally adjusted $740bil for the past 7 months. For the remainder of the year it’s expected to decline about 0.5%/month, but residential spending will still finish 2021 well over $700 billion.
For Power to end up at CCon = $137bil in 2021, considering the ytd through May is already -7%, the remaining 7 months of the year would need to average up 30%. Markets don’t jump that much higher and maintain that level for the next 7 months.
The spread of Spending Put-in-place Forecasts for 2022 ranges over an even wider difference, from $1,355 billion (FMI) to $1,703 billion (CCon). Construction Analytics (CA) forecast for 2022 is $1,533 billion. This is an exceptionally wide spread with some obvious areas of attention.
2022 Residential CA = $779 bil, FMI = $567 bil, CCon = $781 bil
2022 Nonresidential Buildings CA = $421 bil, FMI = $432 bil, CCon = $474 bil
2022 Nonbuilding CA = $333 bil, FMI = $356 bil, CCon = $448 bil
note: Transportation and Communication carried in nonbuilding for like comparison.
At this time of year some firms will present midyear forecasts. My latest report is May ytd data released July 1. With the August 2nd and 6th spending and jobs releases for June we have half a year of data, I’ll base a midyear report on that. I don’t expect any big change since the May data. Not all midyear forecasts will have the same ytd data, so could vary in that respect. So, watch for the midyear forecasts!
Here’ is a link to the results of 8 firms forecasts at Midyear 2020 compared to actual revised final 2020 spending. Also here is the same firms 1st forecast for 2021 compared to actual year-to-date 2021