Compiled in one neat table, here are 2015 predictions from eleven construction data firms for spending growth in nonresidential markets. Several firms provided mid-year estimates and recent estimates. Some provided only mid-year and some just recent estimates. Midyear estimates are separated so changes can be seen to current estimates.
Actual spending put-in-place for September year-to-date (YTD) became available November 2nd and new construction starts for October became available November 23rd.
There is a wide range of variance in predictions with the closest spreads at 9% and the widest spreads in lodging and manufacturing markets. It will be interesting to look back at this chart when the final numbers for 2015 become available in February 2016 to see how we did.
- One recent estimate published in Engineering News Record (ENR) magazine 11-16-15 lists 7% growth for manufacturing buildings. Each of the first nine months in 2015, the year over year growth has ranged between 40% and 60%, so the huge growth expected has been apparent for some time. Even if the last three months drop 15% below the current average we will still finish the year up 40%.
- For growth in educational buildings to fall to only 3%, the last three months would need to drop 15% below the current six month average, a change we will not very likely see.
- The spread on lodging is 18%, from the low estimate of 15% to high of 33%. YTD lodging through nine months is up 31% over last year. To finish at less than 25% growth in 2015, spending for the next three months would need to drop 20% from current levels.
We get a chance to tweak these numbers a little tighter when October spending gets released on December 1st.