Initial Construction Outlook 2021, 2-5-21, based on data from:
- Actual Jobs data includes BLS Jobs to Jan 16th, issued 2-5-21
- Forecast includes US Census Dec 2020 year-to-date spending as of 2-1-21
- Forecast includes Dodge Outlook 2021 and Dec construction starts 1-19-21
SUMMARY – CONCLUSIONS
Construction Spending drives the headlines. Construction Volume drives jobs demand. Volume is spending minus inflation. Current outlook shows the most recent peak volume was 2017-2018. Total Volume is forecast to decline every year out to 2023, but Residential is rising, Nonresidential is falling.
When spending increases less than the rate of inflation, the real work volume is declining. Nonresidential buildings spending for 2020 is down -2%, but with 3% to 5% inflation, volume is down 5% to 7%. The extent of volume declines would impact the jobs situation.
STARTS – BACKLOG – SPENDING
By far the greatest impact of the pandemic on construction is the massive reduction in new nonresidential construction starts in 2020 that will reduce spending and jobs in that sector for at least the next two years. Residential continues to increase.
- 2020 new starts declined -8%. Res +7%, Nonres Bldgs -24%, Nonbuilding -14%.
- New starts for residential reached an all-time high in 2020. Expect up +5% in 2021.
Nonresidential construction starts in backlog at the beginning of the year provide for 75% to 80% of all spending in 2021. New starts in 2020 were down 24% for buildings and 14% for non-buildings, so backlog is down. It would be difficult to show any scenario that has these sectors up in 2021.
Construction has yet to experience the greatest downward pressure from the pandemic. After hitting a post-pandemic spending high in December, spending and jobs losses won’t hit bottom until 2022. Nonresidential declines outweigh Residential gains.
- Spending forecast for 2021 is up +1.4%, but nonresidential buildings is down -11%.
- Almost all gains in spending are due to large 12%/yr gain in residential.
The largest declines in 2021 spending are Lodging -37%, Amusement/Recreation -26%, Manufacturing -19% and Power -15%.
PROJECT COST ESCALATION – INFLATION
- Inflation for nonresidential buildings near 4% the next few years. Residential 5% to 6%.
VOLUME – JOBS
Construction Jobs annual average for 2020 is down 220,000 jobs. The current spending forecast is indicating that December 2020 was the highpoint for jobs. Residential jobs will be up in 2021, but Nonresidential Buildings jobs are down steep. Net jobs will be down 15 of next 18 months. Forecast 2021 net annual average jobs losses of -200,000. Nonresidential Buildings 2021 jobs losses will outweigh residential gains.
Selected slides from Feb 2021 Construction Outlook Presentation